Space debris collision probability analysis for proposed global broadband constellations

May, Samantha Le; Gehly, Steve; Carter, Brett; Flegel, S.

doi:10.1016/j.actaastro.2018.06.036

Cited by 76 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Another private company, OneWeb, intends so launch by the end of 2022 a 648-satellite constellation to provide worldwide internet service as well (Barnett, 2016). Using an evolutionary model with parameters provided by the respective operations application (Barnett, 2016;Space Exploration Holdings, 2016), Le May et al (2018) showed that, within a 5-years operation time, the probability of occurring a catastrophic collision involving an OneWeb spacecraft is ∼5%, whereas the same for SpaceX is near 50%. However, the authors did not consider any effects introduced by solar activity, and, if they did, these figures would have certainly been higher.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Current State and Future Directions of Modeling Thermosphere Density Enhancements During Extreme Magnetic Storms

Oliveira

Zesta

Mehta

et al. 2021

Front. Astron. Space Sci.

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Satellites, crewed spacecraft and stations in low-Earth orbit (LEO) are very sensitive to atmospheric drag. A satellite’s lifetime and orbital tracking become increasingly inaccurate or uncertain during magnetic storms. Given the planned increase of government and private satellite presence in LEO, the need for accurate density predictions for collision avoidance and lifetime optimization, particularly during extreme events, has become an urgent matter and requires comprehensive international collaboration. Additionally, long-term solar activity models and historical data suggest that solar activity will significantly increase in the following years and decades. In this article, we briefly summarize the main achievements in the research of thermosphere response to extreme magnetic storms occurring particularly after the launching of many satellites with state-of-the-art accelerometers from which high-accuracy density can be determined. We find that the performance of an empirical model with data assimilation is higher than its performance without data assimilation during all extreme storm phases. We discuss how forecasting models can be improved by looking into two directions: first, to the past, by adapting historical extreme storm datasets for density predictions, and second, to the future, by facilitating the assimilation of large-scale thermosphere data sets that will be collected in future events. Therefore, this topic is relevant to the scientific community, government agencies that operate satellites, and the private sector with assets operating in LEO.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Current State and Future Directions of Modeling Thermosphere Density Enhancements During Extreme Magnetic Storms

Oliveira

Zesta

Mehta

et al. 2021

Front. Astron. Space Sci.

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show abstract

“…Despite the congestion and traffic management challenges, FCC filings by SpaceX suggest that collision avoidance manoeuvres can in fact maintain collision-free operations in orbital shells and that the probability of a collision between a non-responsive satellite and tracked debris is negligible. However, the filings do not account for untracked debris 6 , including untracked debris decaying through the shells used by Starlink. Using simple estimates (see “ Methods ”), the probability that a single piece of untracked debris will hit any satellite in the Starlink 550 km shell is about 0.003 after one year.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Satellite mega-constellations create risks in Low Earth Orbit, the atmosphere and on Earth

Boley

Byers

2021

Sci Rep

105

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The rapid development of mega-constellations risks multiple tragedies of the commons, including tragedies to ground-based astronomy, Earth orbit, and Earth’s upper atmosphere. Moreover, the connections between the Earth and space environments are inadequately taken into account by the adoption of a consumer electronic model applied to space assets. For example, we point out that satellite re-entries from the Starlink mega-constellation alone could deposit more aluminum into Earth’s upper atmosphere than what is done through meteoroids; they could thus become the dominant source of high-altitude alumina. Using simple models, we also show that untracked debris will lead to potentially dangerous on-orbit collisions on a regular basis due to the large number of satellites within mega-constellation orbital shells. The total cross-section of satellites in these constellations also greatly increases the risk of impacts due to meteoroids. De facto orbit occupation by single actors, inadequate regulatory frameworks, and the possibility of free-riding exacerbate these risks. International cooperation is urgently needed, along with a regulatory system that takes into account the effects of tens of thousands of satellites.

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“…• míg geostacionárius pályán három megfelelő helyzetű mesterséges holddal szinte globális lefedettség érhető el, addig alacsonyabb pályán nagyszámú műhold szükséges ugyanehhez; • mivel nagyszámú mesterséges hold szükséges adott lefedettség eléréshez, megnő a zsúfoltság, és így az ütközésveszély a szóban forgó tartományban. (A problémával több szakcikk is foglalkozik, például [12] és [13]); • további hátrány, hogy alacsony, illetve nagyon alacsony pályákon (VLEO) a mesterséges holdak passzív élettartama hetekben mérhető a jelentős légköri fékeződés miatt, így a pályamagasság folyamatos korrekcióra szorul, amihez nagy mennyiségű hajtóanyag szükséges; • különösen VLEO esetén kap jelentőséget az oxidáció. Ennek az az oka, hogy ezek a pályák a felső légkörnek a viszonylag sűrű rétegeibe esnek, ahol még számottevő mennyiségű molekuláris és atomos oxigén található.…”

Section: üZemeltetőunclassified

Megakonstellációk

Zs.‐Nagy¹

2021

RepTudKoz

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Napjainkban több mint 20 000 mesterséges eredetű objektum és törmelék kering a Föld körül. Ez a szám hamarosan sokszorosára fog nőni a megakonstellációk kiépülésével. Jelen cikkben ennek a hatásait vizsgáljuk. Áttekintjük a megakonstellációk főbb jellemzőit, majd megismerkedünk néhány jelentősebb rendszerrel, és bemutatjuk a rendszerekkel kapcsolatos főbb aggodalmakat. Megállapítjuk, hogy a jelenlegi nemzetközi szabályozási környezet nem megfelelő, mielőbbi felülvizsgálatra szorul. Az űrbéli tevékenységre vonatkozó szabályok aktualizálása az egyes államok mellett a szektor szereplőinek is alapvető érdeke.

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Space debris collision probability analysis for proposed global broadband constellations

Cited by 76 publications

References 9 publications

The Current State and Future Directions of Modeling Thermosphere Density Enhancements During Extreme Magnetic Storms

The Current State and Future Directions of Modeling Thermosphere Density Enhancements During Extreme Magnetic Storms

Satellite mega-constellations create risks in Low Earth Orbit, the atmosphere and on Earth

Megakonstellációk

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