Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Debt Sustainability: An Analysis of Recent Cross-Country Experience

Abstract

AppendixTables A1.1. Fund Arrangements During Recent Sovereign-Debt-Restructuring Episodes A3.1. Evolution of Debt-to-GDP Ratios Since the Crises A4.1. Probit Estimation of Crisis Probability A4.2. Polynomial Fit Through In-Sample Forecasts Appendix Figures A3.1. Change in Debt-to-GDP Ratios, Post-restructuring Period A3.2. Contribution of Primary Balance to Change in Debt-to-GDP Ratio, Post-restructuring Period A3.3. Contribution of Exchange Rate to Change in Debt-to-GDP Ratio, Post-restructuring Period A3.4. Contribution of Interest-Growth Differential to Change in Debt-to-GDP Ratio, Post-restructuring Period BibliographyThe following conventions are used in this publication:In tables, a blank cell indicates "not applicable," ellipsis points ( . . .) indicate "not available," and 0 or 0.0 indicates "zero" or "negligible." Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.An en dash (-) between years or months (for example, 2005-06 or January-June) indicates the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; a slash or virgule (/) between years or months (for example, 2005/06) indicates a fiscal or financial year, as does the abbreviation FY (for example, FY2006)."Billion" means a thousand million; "trillion" means a thousand billion."Basis points" refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).As used in this publication, the term "country" does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.

Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Preemptive or Post-Default

“…In the empirical literature the paper is related to Sturzenegger and Zettelmeyer (), Finger and Mecagni (), Diaz‐Cassou et al. (), Panizza et al.…”

Comparing the Origins of External Default, Domestic Default and Banking Crisis

“…Through this indicator, we figure out the huge government debt tolerance for a country (Reinhart, Rogoff and Savastano, 2003). Finger and Mecagni (2007) found most debt crises erupted at debt to GDP ratio arising more than 39%.…”

Selective Sovereign Defaults

“…Overall, this represented about 18% of total sovereign debt. 20 According to the Secretaria de Estado (2005), just a minor quantity of public debt in the hands of residents was restructured. Importantly, the associated terms were milder than those applied to foreign creditors.…”