Sovereign-Bank Nexus of Turkey: An Analysis of Sovereign Risk and Banking Industry Performance Indicators Based on Camels Rating System

Abstract

This study aims to examine the relationship between sovereign risk and financial performance of the Turkish banking industry in order to identify the interaction channels between these two. To this end, financial data relating to the Turkish banking industry were analyzed based on the CAMELS rating system and were compared with Turkey's Credit Default Swap rates using the most appropriate causality analysis tools. The results showed that there are significant causal relations between sovereign risk and several banking industry indicators of CAMELS rating groups. Significant results were obtained especially as to the causalities between sovereign risk and CAMELS components, which are Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Liquidity, and Sensitivity. Empirical study indicates that 13 variables out 26 variables have causal relationship with credit default swap rates according to Toda and Yamamoto Granger non-causality test results. Although the directions of causality vary among these variables, those results, which indicate influence of credit default swap rates on banking performance indicators, are remarkable.