Southwestern white pine (Pinus strobiformis) species distribution models project a large range shift and contraction due to regional climatic changes

Shirk, Andrew J.; Cushman, Samuel A.; Waring, Kristen M.; Wehenkel, Christian; Leal‐Sàenz, Alejandro; Toney, Chris; López-Sánchez, Carlos Antonio

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2018.01.025

Cited by 80 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Drought stress during the active growing season is widely recognized as a limiting factor to plant growth in the western parts of North America (Williams et al 2010; Restaino et al 2016) and our results are indicative of adaptive divergence along a drought tolerance gradient between the three groups (Gitlin et al 2006; Allen & Breshears 1998). Further, our study broadly agrees with other reports in P. strobiformis indicating precipitation and altitude to be some key niche predictors (Aguirre-Gutiérrez et al 2015; Shirk et al 2017). Climatic clines of admixture and environmentally-dependent maintenance of hybrid zones have been noted in other species of woody perennials in the genera Quercus (Dodd & Afzal-Rafii 2004), Picea (Hamilton et al 2013; De La Torre et al 2014b), Rhododendron (Milne et al 2003), and Pinus (Cullingham et al 2014).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

The role of hybridization during ecological divergence of southwestern white pine (Pinus strobiformis) and limber pine (P. flexilis)

Menon

Bagley

Friedline

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Interactions between extrinsic factors, such as disruptive selection, and intrinsic factors, such as genetic incompatibilities among loci, can contribute to the maintenance of species boundaries. The relative roles of these factors in the establishment of reproductive isolation can be examined using species pairs characterized by gene flow throughout their divergence history. We investigated the process of speciation and the maintenance of species boundaries between Pinus strobiformis and P.flexilis. Utilizing ecological niche modeling, demographic modeling, and genomic cline analyses, we illustrated a history of divergence with continuous gene flow between these species. We found an abundance of advanced generation hybrids and a lack of loci exhibiting large allele frequency differences across the hybrid zone. Additionally, we found evidence for climate-associated variation in the hybrid index and niche divergence between parental species and the hybrid zone. Our results are consistent with extrinsic factors, such as climate, being an important isolating mechanism for these species. A buildup of intrinsic incompatibilities and of co-adapted gene complexes is also apparent in our results, although these appear to be in the earliest stages of development. This supports previous work in coniferous species demonstrating the importance of extrinsic factors in creating and enforcing species boundaries. Overall, we lend support to the hypothesis that varying strengths and directions of selection pressures across the long lifespans of conifers, in combination with their life history strategies, delay the evolution of strong intrinsic incompatibilities.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

The role of hybridization during ecological divergence of southwestern white pine (Pinus strobiformis) and limber pine (P. flexilis)

Menon

Bagley

Friedline

et al. 2017

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…They can also emerge over time from a "command and control" approach in which management actions emphasize maximum output of one or few variables and ultimately reduce the range of natural variation in the system and result in a loss of system resilience, for example, by stabilizing river flows with dams, suppressing fires in fire-prone ecosystems, maximizing timber yield, or maintaining constant, high, deer populations (Holling and Meffe, 1996). Also, climate change may be further de-stabilizing processes, such as fire regimes (Westerling et al, 2006;Westerling, 2016;Littell et al, 2018) and affecting species distributions (Pecl et al, 2017;Shirk et al, 2018).…”

Section: Resilience Concepts States Transitions and Thresholdsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Operationalizing Ecological Resilience Concepts for Managing Species and Ecosystems at Risk

2019

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This review provides an overview and integration of the use of resilience concepts to guide natural resources management actions. We emphasize ecosystems and landscapes and provide examples of the use of these concepts from empirical research in applied ecology. We begin with a discussion of definitions and concepts of ecological resilience and related terms that are applicable to management. We suggest that a resilience-based framework for management facilitates regional planning by providing the ability to locate management actions where they will have the greatest benefits and determine effective management strategies. We review the six key components of a resilience-based framework, beginning with managing for adaptive capacity and selecting an appropriate spatial extent and grain. Critical elements include developing an understanding of the factors influencing the general and ecological resilience of ecosystems and landscapes, the landscape context and spatial resilience, pattern and process interactions and their variability, and relationships among ecological and spatial resilience and the capacity to support habitats and species. We suggest that a spatially explicit approach, which couples geospatial information on general and spatial resilience to disturbance with information on resources, habitats, or species, provides the foundation for resilience-based management. We provide a case study from the sagebrush biome that illustrates the use of geospatial information on ecological and spatial resilience for prioritizing management actions and determine effective strategies.

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“…The main advantages of MaxEnt include: (1) It has been designed to work with presence-only data; thus, it constitutes an interesting alternative to other machine learning based classifiers [34]; (2) its probabilistic output is easy to interpret and has physical meaning [35] and (3) it is a non-parametric model (the input variables interrelations are not determine a priori) [36]. MaxEnt is widely used in ecological studies to model species distributions [37][38][39] and it is increasingly being used in remote sensing based applications like pest potential distribution [40], landslide vulnerability monitoring [41], groundwater potential distribution [42] or fire occurrence modeling [43][44][45][46], so the use of MaxEnt to deal with the effects of burn severity encourages us to check it in the present study. MaxEnt provides the percentage of contribution tables and probability distributions of each target class (three burn severity levels and burned area, in our study), from which burn severity and burned area maps can be built.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vegetation and Soil Fire Damage Analysis Based on Species Distribution Modeling Trained with Multispectral Satellite Data

et al. 2019

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Forest managers demand reliable tools to evaluate post-fire vegetation and soil damage. In this study, we quantify wildfire damage to vegetation and soil based on the analysis of burn severity, using multitemporal and multispectral satellite data and species distribution models, particularly maximum entropy (MaxEnt). We studied a mega-wildfire (9000 ha burned) in North-Western Spain, which occurred from 21 to 27 August 2017. Burn severity was measured in the field using the composite burn index (CBI). Burn severity of vegetation and soil layers (CBIveg and CBIsoil) was also differentiated. MaxEnt provided the relative contribution of each pre-fire and post-fire input variable on low, moderate and high burn severity levels, as well as on all severity levels combined (burned area). In addition, it built continuous suitability surfaces from which the burned surface area and burn severity maps were built. The burned area map achieved a high accuracy level (κ = 0.85), but slightly lower accuracy when differentiating the three burn severity classes (κ = 0.81). When the burn severity map was validated using field CBIveg and CBIsoil values we reached lower κ statistic values (0.76 and 0.63, respectively). This study revealed the effectiveness of the proposed multi-temporal MaxEnt based method to map fire damage accurately in Mediterranean ecosystems, providing key information to forest managers.

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Southwestern white pine (Pinus strobiformis) species distribution models project a large range shift and contraction due to regional climatic changes

Cited by 80 publications

References 63 publications

The role of hybridization during ecological divergence of southwestern white pine (Pinus strobiformis) and limber pine (P. flexilis)

The role of hybridization during ecological divergence of southwestern white pine (Pinus strobiformis) and limber pine (P. flexilis)

Operationalizing Ecological Resilience Concepts for Managing Species and Ecosystems at Risk

Vegetation and Soil Fire Damage Analysis Based on Species Distribution Modeling Trained with Multispectral Satellite Data

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