A change in climate would be expected to shift plant distribution as species expand in newly favorable areas and decline in increasingly hostile locations. We compared surveys of plant cover that were made in 1977 and 2006 -2007 along a 2,314-m elevation gradient in Southern California's Santa Rosa Mountains. Southern California's climate warmed at the surface, the precipitation variability increased, and the amount of snow decreased during the 30-year period preceding the second survey. We found that the average elevation of the dominant plant species rose by Ï·65 m between the surveys. This shift cannot be attributed to changes in air pollution or fire frequency and appears to be a consequence of changes in regional climate.plant migration Í range shift C limate controls the distribution of many plants (1, 2). Future changes in climate are projected to cause changes in vegetation distribution (3). The global mean land surface has warmed 0.27°C per decade since 1979 (4), but it is unclear whether this change has caused widespread shifts in plant distribution (5). Parmesan and Yohe (6) compiled studies on many species, including alpine herbs, birds, and butterflies, and found an average poleward shift of 6.1 km per decade. Several studies have attributed widespread changes in plant growth or mortality to climate change (7), but these efforts have focused on general trends within biomes rather than identifying spatially coherent redistribution patterns. Studies of plant phenology have attributed longer growing seasons, earlier onset of flowering, and earlier harvest to climate warming (5, 6). The few studies that have shown evidence of plant shifts have focused on the edges of plant ranges (8-10). The lack of evidence of widespread plant range shifts may reflect the limited dispersal of plants (11,12), or it may simply reflect the paucity of long-term records of plant distribution.The Deep Canyon Transect in Southern California's Santa Rosa Mountains spans several plant communities and climates (13) and provides an excellent opportunity to investigate the climatic controls on plant distribution (2, 14). The transect rises from 244 m to 2,560 m over 16 km, climbing through desert scrub, pinyon-juniper woodland, chaparral shrubland, and conifer forest. The overall climate is arid and semiarid, with predominantly cool-season precipitation. The annual precipitation, proportion of precipitation falling as snow, and probability of frost increase with increasing elevation, and the annual mean temperature and interannual precipitation variability decrease with increasing elevation [supporting information (SI)
ResultsA total of 141 species were recorded along the transect in 2006-2007. Many of these species were found at only one or two elevations. Ten of the species were dominant at three or more elevations, and we focused our analysis on these plants (Fig. 1).The distributions of some of these species were similar; for example, Ceanothus greggii and Quercus cornelius-mulleri had broadly similar distributions throughout ...