South Pacific Tropical Cyclones and the Southern Oscillation

Revell, Clifford G.; Goulter, S. W.

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<1138:sptcat>2.0.co;2

Cited by 80 publications

(47 citation statements)

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“…Because tropical convective regions are primarily forced by moisture convergence, analysing the changes in wind patterns and moisture convergence in relation to the SPCZ variability allow us to better understand the mechanism of SST forcings driving the variations of SPCZ location. For the ''positive'' cluster, the slight eastward shift of the warm pool eastern boundary results in maximum SST anomalies around 160°W driving low level wind anomalies in the western Pacific west of 160°W that are maximum just 1982/1983, 1991/1992, 1997/1998 1982/1983, 1997/1998, 1991/1992, 1986/1987, 1994/1995, 1987/1988, 1979/1980 ''Positive'' years Neutral ENSO years 1992ENSO years /1993ENSO years , 1986ENSO years /1987ENSO years , 1994ENSO years /1995ENSO years , 2001ENSO years /2002ENSO years , 1987ENSO years /1988ENSO years , 1989ENSO years /1990ENSO years , 1979ENSO years /1980ENSO years 1992ENSO years /1993ENSO years , 1990ENSO years /1991ENSO years , 1989ENSO years /1990ENSO years , 1993ENSO years /1994ENSO years , 1981ENSO years /1982ENSO years , 2001ENSO years /2002ENSO years , 1980ENSO years /1981ENSO years , 1996ENSO years /1997ENSO years , 1985ENSO years /1986 ''Neutral'' years Niña years 1980/1981, 1984/1985, 1990/1991, 1996/1997, 1985/1986, 1981/1982…”

Section: Sst Forcing Of Spcz Interannual Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The interannual variability of the SPCZ location and TC activity in the Australian/western Pacific have been investigated mainly with respect to their relationship with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It has been shown that El Niño (La Niña) events tend to occur accordingly with a north-eastward (south-westward) displacement of the SPCZ (Trenberth 1976;Folland et al 2002) and of a similar displacement of the TC genesis region in the south-western Pacific (Revell and Goulter 1986;Hastings 1990;Basher and Zheng 1995;Kuleshov et al 2008), while decreasing (increasing) TC activity near Australia (Nicholls 1985;Holland et al 1988;Evans and Allan 1992;Ramsay et al 2008). Although the SPCZ and the region of TC activity in the southwest Pacific are displaced in a similar fashion during ENSO events, the detailed mechanisms and the extent to which SPCZ controls the large scale environment favouring cyclonic activity have not yet been investigated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and implications for tropical cyclone genesis

et al. 2009

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The interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and its influence on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the South Pacific are investigated using observations and ERA40 reanalysis over the 1979-2002 period. In austral summer, the SPCZ displays four typical structures at interannual timescales. The first three are characterized by a diagonal orientation of the SPCZ and account for 85% of the summer seasons. One is close to climatology and the other two exhibit a 3°northward or southward departure from the SPCZ climatological position. In contrast, the fourth one, that only encompasses three austral summer seasons (the extreme 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 El Niño events and the moderate 1991/1992 El Niño event), displays very peculiar behaviour where the SPCZ largely departs from its climatological position and is zonally oriented. Variability of the western/central Pacific equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) is shown to modulate moisture transport south of the equator, thereby strongly constraining the location of the SPCZ. The SPCZ location is also shown to strongly modulate the atmospheric circulation variability in the South Pacific with specific patterns for each class. However, independently of its wide year-to-year excursions, the SPCZ is always collocated with the zero relative vorticity at low levels while the maximum vorticity axis lies 6°to the south of the SPCZ position. This coherent atmospheric organisation in the SPCZ region is shown to constrain tropical cyclogenesis to occur preferentially within 10°south of the SPCZ location as this region combines all the large-scale atmospheric conditions that favour the breeding of TCs. This analysis also reveals that cyclogenesis in the central Pacific (in the vicinity of French Polynesia) only occurs when the SPCZ displays a zonal orientation while this observation was previously attributed to El Niño years in general. Different characteristics of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related Pacific equatorial warming are shown to impact differently on the SPCZ position, suggesting that for regional scales, such as the South Pacific, the SPCZ classification is more appropriate than a simple ENSO index to characterize TC interannual variability. These findings suggest that forecasting the strength of El Niño through SST variations in the eastern Pacific may not be sufficient to accurately predict cyclogenesis in the South Pacific, especially east of the dateline.

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Section: Sst Forcing Of Spcz Interannual Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and implications for tropical cyclone genesis

et al. 2009

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“…Gray, 1984;Revell and Goulter, 1986) and existing reconstructions (e.g. Woodruff et al, 2009) suggest ENSO may be a key driver of past tropical cyclone variability but several obstacles exist in quantifying this relationship on geologic timescales and ruling out alternative forcing mechanisms: (1) existing reconstructions show variable ENSO behavior over the Holocene and are located outside storm basins, (2) age model uncertainty (~50-100 yrs) limits characterization of high frequency ENSO-TC interaction, (3) conventional sites (e.g.…”

Section: Chapter 1: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On seasonal to annual time-scales, instrumental observations show that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts significant control over tropical cyclone activity in the South Pacific (Revell and Goulter, 1986;Hastings, 1990;Basher and Zheng, 1995). Analysis of tropical cyclone genesis locations between 1939 and 1979 AD by Revell and Goulter (1986) revealed a northeastern (southwestern) displacement during El Niño (La Niña).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Quaternary morphology and paleoenvironmental records of carbonate islands

Toomey¹

2014

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Here I use a simple numerical model of reef profile evolution to show that the presentday morphology of carbonate islands has developed largely in response to late Pleistocene sea level oscillations in addition to variable vertical motion and reef accretion rates. In particular, large amplitude 'ice-house' sea-level variability resulted in long lagoonal depositional hiatuses, producing the morphology characteristic of modern-day barrier reefs. Reactivation of carbonate factories, transport of coarse reef material and rapid infilling of shallow water accommodation space since deglaciation makes these unique sites for reconstructing Holocene climate.Integration of new tropical cyclone reconstructions from both backbarrier reef (central Pacific) and carbonate bank (the Bahamas) settings with existing storm archives suggests a coordinated pattern of cyclone activity across storm basins since the late Holocene. Seesawing of intense tropical cyclone activity between the western Pacific (~0-1000 yrs BP) and North Atlantic/Central Pacific (~1000-2500 yrs BP) appears closely tied with hydrographic patterns in the tropical Pacific and El Niño-like variability. Decoupling of North Atlantic (inactive) and South Pacific (active) tropical cyclone patterns during the mid-Holocene suggests precession driven changes in storm season insolation may constrain ocean-atmosphere thermal gradients and therefore cyclone potential intensity on orbital timescales. In particular, analysis of instrumental records (e.g. Gray, 1984;Revell and Goulter, 1986) and existing reconstructions (e.g. Woodruff et al., 2009) Reproduced with permission from GSA. 13GEOLOGY | July 2013 | www.gsapubs.org 1 INTRODUCTIONCoral reefs dynamically adapt to vertical motion (uplift or subsidence), erosion, antecedent topography, and changing sea level, developing a variety of profi le forms ( Many previous studies have introduced numerical models of reef profi le development (Bosence and Waltham, 1990;Bosscher and Schlager, 1992; Chappell, 1980; Hill et al., 2009; Koelling et al., 2009; Paterson et al., 2006;Paulay and McEdward, 1990; Warrlich et al., 2002;Webster et al., 2007). In general, these models have related reef morphology at specifi c sites to rates of island subsidence, reef accretion, and sea-level rise, but do not satisfactorily explain the wide range of morphologic variability observed in modern reefs.Here we address the broad-scale controls on island reef form. First, we discuss the growth and stability of reefs as they experience island vertical motion and sea-level change. Second, we implement a profi le model of long-term reef development, systematically exploring reef evolution for a wide variety of vertical motion rates, reef accretion rates, and sea-level histories over glacial sea-level cycles. Finally, we compare the gross morphology of reef profi le forms generated by the model with those of natural reefs with known vertical motion and accretion rates. CORAL GROWTH AND SEA LEVELThe primary control on the development of coral r...

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Cyclones

2006

Van Nostrand's Scientific Encyclopedia

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South Pacific Tropical Cyclones and the Southern Oscillation

Cited by 80 publications

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Interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and implications for tropical cyclone genesis

Interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and implications for tropical cyclone genesis

Quaternary morphology and paleoenvironmental records of carbonate islands

Cyclones

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