Some Problems in the Prediction of Future Numbers of Cases of the Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome in the Uk

Actuarial review of models for describing and predicting the spread of HIV infection and AIDS

“…This appears to be equivalent to assuming exponential growth with a doubling time of about 2 years. The results are in agreement with the earlier results of McEvoy & Tillett (1985)-as noted above, these were subsequently rejected by Tillett & McEvoy (1986). Curran et al (1985) report on the epidemiology of AIDS and mention some estimates of the future number of AIDS cases for the U.S.A.…”

“…The approach here is to use the pattern of recent trends in AIDS cases and, with a variety of statistical methods of curve-fitting, project forward the future course of the epidemic, Short-term projections, based on an extrapolation of the data for reported cases of AIDS in the U.K. have been published by a number of authors, including McEvoy & Tillett (1985) Tillett & McEvoy (1986) and Healy & Tillett (1988). Similar projections have been made for other countries-for example for the U.S.A. by Curran et al (1985Curran et al ( , 1988 Hyman & Stanley (1988) Hellinger (1988) and Fuhrer (1988).…”

The impact of HIV infection and AIDS on insurance in the United Kingdom

“…5.1.6 Short-term projections, based on an extrapolation of the existing data for reported cases of AIDS in the U.K., have been published by McEvoy & Tillett (1985) Mortimer (1985) Tillett & McEvoy (1986) and by Healy & Tillett (1988). Similar projections have been made for the U.S.A. by Curran et al (1985).…”

Diagnosis of lung disease in acquired immune deficiency syndrome: biopsy or cytology and implications for management.

“…In an environment where AIDS and HIV infection are increasing'9 20 it is important that financial and workload considerations should not interfere with, or compromise, the accurate diagnosis and subsequent optimal treatment of these patients.…”