Some Observations on Political Gaming

Goldhamer, Herbert; Speier, Hans

doi:10.2307/2009213

Cited by 61 publications

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“…Despite an increase in the projects scope, the application of game theory turned out to be quite difficult. Failure to predict outcomes in empirical situations was a contributing factor to a reaction against game theory at RAND, which, in turn, helped foster a set of more realistic approaches such as gaming and scenario planning, as well as a set of insights about the importance of organizational behaviors on decision-making (Goldhamer and Speier 1959). Hitch at the time noted, '[f ]or our purposes, game theory has been quite disappointing' (Hitch in Kraft 1960, 76), but acknowledging the limitations and the increasing awareness of the importance of human and organizational factors in the complex strategic environment helped spur work for instance on the application of organizational behavior to strategic analysis (Allison and Marshall 1968;Marshall 1968).…”

Section: Rand Rationality and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

A Re-appreciation of Charlie Hitch and his Contributions to Economics, Security, and the Management of Organizations

Augier

Marshall

2018

Defence and Peace Economics

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This paper discusses central ideas in the work of Charles Hitch. He is known for his pioneering contributions to defense economics and 'systems analysis' and for his introducing program budgeting in McNamara's Pentagon. We discuss the evolution of his work and ideas, and how his views on systems analysis were influenced by his broader interest in human and organizational behavior. The paper also emphasizes Hitch's skills as leader and manager of organizations (in particular as the head of the economics department at RAND).

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Section: Rand Rationality and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

A Re-appreciation of Charlie Hitch and his Contributions to Economics, Security, and the Management of Organizations

Augier

Marshall

2018

Defence and Peace Economics

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“…Before it began, players of each national team composed a secret strategy paper that elucidated the goals they would attempt to achieve. In the course of play, each team's moves were made via a short report, submitted to referees, in which a team's members stated “the motives of their moves and the expectations on which they were based” (Goldhamer & Speier, , pp. 74–75).…”

Section: From Antagonism To Creativitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Organizing Complexity: The Hopeful Dreams and Harsh Realities of Interdisciplinary Collaboration at the Rand Corporation in the Early Cold War

Bessner¹

2014

J History Behavioral Science

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Historians argue that in the early Cold War an interdisciplinary research culture defined the RAND Corporation. However, a significant epistemological gap divided the members of RAND's Social Science Division (SSD) from the rest of the organization. While the social scientists used qualitative methods, most RAND researchers embraced quantified approaches and derided the social sciences as unscientific. This encouraged RAND's social scientists to develop a political-military simulation that embraced everything-politics, culture, and psychology-that RAND's other analysts largely ignored. Yet the fact that the SSD embraced gaming, a heuristic practiced throughout RAND, suggests that the political simulation was nonetheless inspired by social scientists' engagement with their colleagues. This indicates that the concept of interdisciplinarity should move beyond its implication of collaboration to incorporate instances in which research agendas are defined against but also shaped by colleagues in other disciplines. Such a rethinking of the term may make it possible to trace how varieties of interdisciplinary interaction historically informed knowledge production.

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“…In Political Science, their main use has been in the area of international relations and security (e.g. Goldhamer & Speier 1959;Cohen 1962;Vincent & Shepherd 1998;Chasek 2005: however note Endersby & Webber 1995 as an example of domestic politics), largely because of the methodologies utilised. In most simulations, roles and topics are pre-defined and prescriptive, rather than organic and in continuing interplay with real-world events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Grounding simulations in reality: a case study from an undergraduate Politics degree

Usherwood

2009

On the Horizon

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PurposeThe paper addresses the issue of how best to reproduce realistic reproductions and outcomes in the dynamic environment of a simulated negotiation on a political theme. Design/methodology/approachUsing a case study run by the author of a University undergraduate negotiation module, qualitative data is provided to support a pragmatic model of addressing issues of realistic behaviour and outcomes. FindingsThrough a combination of elements -notably, integration of more conventional academic research, use of repeated points of contact between students and the module leader, and extensive reflection after the exercise by the student -it is possible to provide for a simulation that more closely follows real-world outcomes than would otherwise be the case. Research limitations/implications (if applicable)The use of a single case study clearly limits the ability to generalise and implies the need to replicate the work in new iterations and in new contexts. Practical implications (if applicable)The paper highlights the importance of grounding simulations in reality, if they are to maximise their utility as a teaching practice. It also stresses the high level of engagement, not only on the part of the students, but also on the part of the module leader, who must be an active part of the simulation structure. Originality/valueThe consideration of a continuous process of grounding simulations in reality is one that has not been 2 explored by the existing literature, so it offers useful insights into practice that will be of value to both practitioners and theorists in the field. Keywords: Case Study INTRODUCTIONImplicit in the notion of simulations is that of a connection with the real-world: we seek to recreate some aspect of that world within a controlled environment, so that we might better understand what is happening. Thus, the question of how we validate that simulation is one that concerns all those involve in simulating. In this paper, we consider one particular aspect of this validation, using a case study drawn from a university degree programme in Politics, which aims to study the process of negotiation itself. In essence, the paper explores the tension between being simple and being realistic which Loveluck (1994) notes lies so ambiguously at the heart of simulations.Simulations have a long history as a teaching method, not only in Politics, but also in other fields, such as simulations, roles and topics are pre-defined and prescriptive, rather than organic and in continuing interplay with real-world events. Typically, students will debate responses to a fictitious (if credible) event, drawing on either position papers drawn up by module leaders or on more general research that students have conducted upon their subjects. In all cases, the approach delivers useful insights into the interaction of multiple political actors and highlights aspects that traditional qualitative and quantitative 3 research methodologies cannot fully explore (Johnson 1999). The case study considered in this paper follows a simila...

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Some Observations on Political Gaming

Abstract: During the past five years the Social Science Division of The RAND Corporation has been developing a procedure for the study of foreign affairs that we call “political gaming.” This article gives a brief description of the technique and some of our observations about its utility.

Cited by 61 publications

References 0 publications

A Re-appreciation of Charlie Hitch and his Contributions to Economics, Security, and the Management of Organizations

A Re-appreciation of Charlie Hitch and his Contributions to Economics, Security, and the Management of Organizations

Organizing Complexity: The Hopeful Dreams and Harsh Realities of Interdisciplinary Collaboration at the Rand Corporation in the Early Cold War

Grounding simulations in reality: a case study from an undergraduate Politics degree

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