Some New Results on the Estimation of Structural Budget Balance for Spain

Zack, Guido; Blanco, Pilar Poncela; Senra, Eva; Salem, Daniel Sotelsek

doi:10.7866/hpe-rpe.14.3.1

Cited by 4 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Sin embargo, como se ha visto a partir de la crisis de 2008, este indicador no es satisfactorio a la hora de identificar los ingresos producto de la revalorización de activos. Para ello es de suma utilidad desarrollar un indicador estructural que sí considere estos efectos, como el desarrollado por Zack et al, (2014) 7 .…”

Section: El Resultado Fiscalunclassified

“…A cambio, se hará uso del RFE para España estimado por Zack et al (2014). Como se puede ver en el cuadro 1, este se diferencia significativamente del RFE estimado por la Comisión Europea básicamente por tener en consideración los ingresos públicos extraordinarios producto de la burbuja inmobiliaria y del boom en la construcción.…”

Section: El Caso De España Previo a 2008: Un Ejercicio De Aplicaciónunclassified

“…En la quinta sección se hace una propuesta de regla, que debería ser adaptada a cada caso particular. Para ello se realiza un ejercicio de aplicación para el caso de España en los años previos a la crisis de 2008, utilizando la estimación del RFE realizada por Zack et al (2014). Finalmente, se exponen las consideraciones finales.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

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Propuesta y diseño de una regla fiscal genérica

Zack

Salem

2018

CyA

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<p class="Default"><span>Las herramientas esenciales del Estado para cumplir con el objetivo de estabilidad macroeconómica son la política monetaria y la política fiscal. Sin embargo, el avance en términos de reglas de comportamiento ha sido mucho mayor en el caso de la política monetaria. En el presente artículo se pretende hacer un aporte en relación al mecanismo que debería regir una regla fiscal, de forma que fomente un comportamiento contracíclico, sin que ponga en cuestionamiento la solvencia del sector público. Para ello, es fundamental dotar a la regla de flexibilidad, a través de una correcta selección de la base y una cláusula de escape clara y transparente. Una vez descritas sus características deseables, se propone una regla fiscal genérica que debería ser adaptada a cada caso particular, en esta oportunidad el ejercicio se realiza para el caso de España en los años previos a la última crisis. Finalmente, se concluye que una regla fiscal bien diseñada puede ser de mucha utilidad no solo para los objetivos de solvencia y estabilidad, sino también como guía para la discrecionalidad.</span></p>

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Section: El Resultado Fiscalunclassified

Section: El Caso De España Previo a 2008: Un Ejercicio De Aplicaciónunclassified

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Propuesta y diseño de una regla fiscal genérica

Zack

Salem

2018

CyA

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“…In this respect, since the beginning of the crisis, there was a tendency towards over-optimism in Spain's official macroeconomic 5 The significant increase in public revenues during the expansion was not fully of a structural nature. Rather, some studies identified a substantial temporary component (see Zack et al (2014) Note: Due to data availability, the breakdown of social protection in Figure 4b is based on the European system of national and regional accounts 1995, ESA95, instead of the ESA 2010 standard on which Figure 4a projections, which carried over to government revenue forecasts. These are features shared with many other OECD governments.…”

Section: Fiscal Stance Before the Crisismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rather, some studies identified a substantial temporary component (see Zack et al. () and the references quoted therein).…”

mentioning

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Spanish Public Finances through the Financial Crisis

Pérez

Martí

2015

Fiscal Studies

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Spain's public finances have been under significant stress during the financial crisis, despite pre-crisis fiscal surpluses and low levels of public debt. The impact of the crisis and an initial phase of countercyclical activism exacerbated the existing (structural) fiscal vulnerabilities. To correct the fiscal imbalances, a significant number of bold policy actions were taken, affecting taxation, public spending, national fiscal rules and the structure of the public sector. In this paper, we discuss the evolution of the public finances in Spain through the financial crisis, framing crisis-related fiscal policy measures within mediumterm economic trends and focusing on policy responses to the crisis. We also touch upon the main policy challenges ahead. Policy pointsr At moments of substantial fiscal stress, a strong policy response is a must for reversing adverse public finance trends and regaining normal market * 528 Fiscal Studies access, even under unfavourable macroeconomic conditions. Limited policy action or an excess of fiscal activism when information is limited may compromise the sustainability of the welfare state.r Enacted structural fiscal reforms -particularly those affecting fiscal rules, public pensions and the organisation of the public sector -have to be implemented in a time-consistent manner, in order to support economic stability and to create room for the normal conduct of fiscal policies. Good economic times could be used to design a more efficient and growthfriendly tax system. r Side effects of on-the-run fiscal retrenchment measures in Spain may have included the appearance of bottlenecks in the provision of certain key public goods and services (in the areas of education and health, for example) or the discontinuation of socially-relevant programmes. A deep spending review could be instrumental for redressing public spending priorities.r The legacies of the financial crisis, in the form of high levels of public debt and yet-to-be-solved macroeconomic imbalances, advise prudent fiscal policymaking in the near term.

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A perfect storm in a sunny economy: a political economy approach to the crisis in Spain

Buendía

2018

Socio-Economic Review

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Although Spain’s economy was seen as a miracle during the most recent expansive phase (for its labour market outcomes in terms of job growth, among other things), the economy’s development during those years suffered from severe problems that deserve attention. This became more relevant in a context like the current one, where there is no consensus around which economic policies might lead the country back onto a stable growth path. Using a systemic approach in which we analyse the growth model, the role of Spain in the European division of labour, the financial sector, the labour market, the public sector, and the distribution of income, we contend that, in contrast with several narratives concerning the crisis in Spain: (i) the ‘living-beyond-our-means’ discourse is not true; and (ii) certain political and economic aspects, usually missing in those narratives, are essential to understanding the recent evolution of Spain.

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Some New Results on the Estimation of Structural Budget Balance for Spain

Cited by 4 publications

References 23 publications

Propuesta y diseño de una regla fiscal genérica

Propuesta y diseño de una regla fiscal genérica

Spanish Public Finances through the Financial Crisis

A perfect storm in a sunny economy: a political economy approach to the crisis in Spain

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