Some extending thoughts on “thinking globally and siting locally—renewable energy and biodiversity in a rapidly warming world”

Abstract

Allison et al. (2014) is a provocative piece that highlights (1) the risks for ecosystems as the climate changes and (2) the tradeoffs that must be considered (i.e., the specific risks for one particular ecosystem against another) in the broader context of the global implications of (3) climate change and policy responses. In their abstract, they state that (selectively quoted with my emphasis in italics):Increasing greenhouse gas emissions are projected to raise global average surface temperatures by 3°-4°C within this century, dramatically increasing the extinction risk for terrestrial and freshwater species and severely disrupting ecosystems across the globe. … Concerns about potential adverse impacts to species and ecosystems from the expansion of renewable energy development will play an important role in determining the pace and scale of emissions reductions and hence, the impact of climate change on global biodiversity. Efforts are underway to reduce uncertainty regarding wildlife impacts from renewable energy development, but such uncertainty cannot be eliminated. We argue the need to accept some and perhaps substantial risk of impacts to wildlife from renewable energy development in order to limit the far greater risks to biodiversity loss owing to climate change.I write both to compliment and to complement their arguments; they are "right on the money," but did not go far enough. I therefore write to suggest how their adopting a risk-based framing of the ecosystem issue can be an exemplary and early example of how to organize broader thinking about risk and risk-based tradeoffs as we begin to contemplate how to respond to the complex menu of climate risks.The risk-based framing adopted by Allison et al. (2014) was born in the Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007). In its final section, and in words that were authored by Steven Schneider and unanimously approved by all of the countries involved in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the IPCC concluded that:Responding to climate change involves an iterative risk management process that includes both adaptation and mitigation and takes into account climate change damages,