Somali Piracy and the Monsoon

Abstract

Analysis of the weather and ocean conditions during recent pirate attacks in the Indian Ocean region suggests that the transition of the summer monsoon limits maritime piracy. A comparison of all known pirate attacks in the region in 2010-11 with surface observations from Socotra and the Somali jet index during the same period indicates that pirates attacking from skiffs are thwarted when winds blow in excess of 9 m s 21 . The wind speeds and sea states encountered by pirates during individual attacks were reconstructed using satellite altimetry data for 2010-11. Mean daily wind speeds of up to 20 m s 21 during the two boreal summers resulted in consistently rough seas across the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. Surface wind speeds during pirate attacks were generally low (less than 8 m s 21 ), and once wind speeds exceeded 9 m s 21 no successful attacks occurred. The majority (94%) of pirate attacks took place in waves of sea state 4 or less (wave heights below 2.5 m), with pirates rarely attacking after the rough seas of the summer monsoon evolved. Wind speeds and wave heights during the winter monsoon, premonsoon [March-May (MAM)], and postmonsoon [September-November (SON)] seasons were not a deterrent for pirates operating in the Indian Ocean region.

A typology of substitution: weather, armed conflict, and maritime piracy

“…Carter and Veale (2015), for instance, find that rainy weather halts ground military operations. Similarly, as Percy and Shortland (2013) argue, windy oceans make piracy activities potentially deadly endeavors; a majority of contemporary rebel groups or pirates do not possess large-scale armored ships, mostly relying on speedboats, fishing vessels, or even handmade wooden boats, which are especially vulnerable to rough water (Murphy, 2009;Cook and Garrett, 2013). Even for pirates who possess mother ships, rainy weather can deter them from conducting piracy activities with smaller ships.…”

“…Even without an organized group, a small number of individual soldiers can switch tactics. Indeed, pirates are often equipped with firearms and use small motorboats (Murphy, 2009;Cook and Garrett, 2013;Percy and Shortland, 2013). This means that soldiers can switch their tactics from day to day if they simply own a motorboat.…”

Using message brokering and data mediation on earth science data to enhance global maritime situational awareness

“…This ability to see sea state and wind conditions is particularly useful for assessing the risk of piracy around the Horn of Africa. The analysis of the piracy incidents and weather conditions around the Horn of Africa found that wave heights of at least 2.5 m and wind speeds greater than 9m/s greatly reduces the risk of successful piracy [3].…”

“…The technology used in the Blue Hub facility consists of Open Source Web [2]. A separate analysis of weather and ocean conditions during piracy attacks found that the transition of the summer monsoon limits piracy activity [3].…”