Solid runoff of the Don River and suspended matter flow into the delta during surges: statistical modeling and comparison in the low water period

Abstract

Statistical modeling of the Don River solid runoff based on water discharge and turbidity measurements obtained at the hydrological station in the village of Razdorskaya for the twelve-year period 2009–2020 was carried out. The WRTDS (Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season) and WRTDSKalman (WRTDS with Kalman filtering) methods were applied. The developed statistical model is aimed at solving the problem of the imbalance between the regularity of collecting data on water discharge and data on the concentration of suspended matter by “restoring” the concentration values on days without measurements based on data on the most “similar” days with measurements in terms of time, discharge and season and does not claim to describe a relationship between the concentration of the constituent of interest and discharge. The quality of the developed statistical model and its modification were checked. The average daily concentrations and fluxes of suspended matter were compared with estimates of the volumes of suspended material deposited during periods of recurring strong surge phenomena. A comparative assessment of sea and river factors contributions to the transport and sedimentation of suspended matter in the Don River delta was fulfilled.