Solar-terrestrial predictions

Hruska, J.; Shea, M. A.

doi:10.1016/0273-1177(93)90519-h

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…In studying the driving of the magnetosphere, upstream solar wind measurements are compared with magnetospheric measurements [cf., Kamide and Slavin , 1986; Hruska et al , 1993] without much consideration of the action of the magnetosheath. For such a study, an appropriate set of magnetosheath measurements would be difficult to obtain since the properties of the magnetosheath vary with spatial location.…”

Section: The Role Of the Shock And The Magnetosheath Flow Patternmentioning

confidence: 99%

The rudiments of a theory of solar wind/magnetosphere coupling derived from first principles

Borovsky

2008

J. Geophys. Res.

178

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[1] A formula that expresses the dayside reconnection rate in terms of upstream solar wind parameters is derived and tested. The derivation is based on the hypothesis that dayside reconnection is governed by local plasma parameters and that whatever controls those parameters controls the reconnection rate. The starting point of the derivation is the Cassak-Shay formula (from energy conservation principles), which expresses the dayside reconnection rate in terms of four parameters: the magnetic field strengths B m and B s in the magnetosphere and magnetosheath and the plasma mass densities r m and r s in the magnetosphere and magnetosheath. Using the Rankine-Hugoniot relations at the bow shock and an analysis of the magnetosheath flow, three of these parameters are expressed in terms of upstream solar wind parameters. These three expressions are then used in the Cassak-Shay formula to obtain the ''solar wind control function.'' The interpretation of the control function is that solar wind pressure largely sets the reconnection rate. The solar wind magnetic field enters into the control function because of a bow shock Mach number dependence. The onset of a ''plasmasphere effect'' occurs when r m > M A 0.87 r solarwind , wherein the magnetosphere begins to exert control over solar wind/magnetosphere coupling. Using the OMNI2 data set and seven geomagnetic indices, the solar wind control function is tested on its ability to describe the variance in the geomagnetic indices. The control function is found to be successful, statistically as good as the best ''solar wind driver function'' in the literature. This picture opens a new pathway to understanding and calculating solar wind/magnetosphere coupling.

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Section: The Role Of the Shock And The Magnetosheath Flow Patternmentioning

confidence: 99%

The rudiments of a theory of solar wind/magnetosphere coupling derived from first principles

Borovsky

2008

J. Geophys. Res.

178

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“…An example of a major disruption on high technology operations by magnetic variations of a large extent occurred in March 1989, when an intense geomagnetic storm upset communication systems, orbiting satellites, and electric power systems around the world. Several large power transformers also failed in Canada and the United States, and there were hundred disoperation of relays and protective systems (Kappenman and Albertson, 1990;Hruska and Shea, 1993). Some evidence has been also reported on the association between geomagnetic disturbances and increases in work and traffic accidents (Ptitsyna et al, 1998 and references therein).…”

Section: On the Influence Of Geomagnetic Storms Accompanied By Cosmicmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space weather and dangerous phenomena on the Earth: principles of great geomagnetic storms forcasting by online cosmic ray data

Дорман

2005

Ann. Geophys.

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Abstract. According to NOAA space weather scales, geomagnetic storms of scales G5 (3-h index of geomagnetic activity K p =9), G4 (K p =8) and G3 (K p =7) are dangerous for satellites, aircrafts, and even for technology on the ground (influence on power systems, on spacecraft operations, on HF radio-communications and others). We show on the basis of statistical data, that these geomagnetic storms, mostly accompanied by cosmic ray (CR) Forbush-decreases, are also dangerous for people's health on spacecraft and on the ground (increasing the rate of myocardial infarctions, brain strokes and car accident road traumas). To prevent these serious damages it is very important to forecast dangerous geomagnetic storms. Here we consider the principles of using CR measurements for this aim: to forecast at least 10-15 h before the sudden commencement of great geomagnetic storms accompanied by Forbush-decreases, by using neutron monitor muon telescope worldwide network online hourly data. We show that for this forecast one may use the following features of CR intensity variations connected with geomagnetic storms accompanied by Forbush-decreases: 1) CR pre-increase, 2) CR pre-decrease, 3) CR fluctuations, 4) change in the 3-D CR anisotropy.

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“…1990; Hruska and Shea . There are two lines of their possible influence: effects on physical systems and on human beings as biological systems.…”

Section: Astrophysics At the Highest Energy Frontiersmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Early Universe and the Cosmic Microwave Background: Theory and Observations

2003

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Solar-terrestrial predictions

Cited by 10 publications

References 1 publication

The rudiments of a theory of solar wind/magnetosphere coupling derived from first principles

The rudiments of a theory of solar wind/magnetosphere coupling derived from first principles

Space weather and dangerous phenomena on the Earth: principles of great geomagnetic storms forcasting by online cosmic ray data

The Early Universe and the Cosmic Microwave Background: Theory and Observations

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