Solar shield: forecasting and mitigating space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission systems

Abstract

In this paper, central elements of the Solar Shield project, launched to design and establish an experimental system capable of forecasting the space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission system, are described. It will be shown how Sun-Earth system data and models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) are used to generate two-level magnetohydrodynamics-based forecasts providing 1-2 day and 30-60 min lead-times. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) represents the end-user, the power transmission industry, in the project. EPRI integrates the forecast products to an online display tool providing information about space weather conditions to the member power utilities. EPRI also evaluates the economic impacts of severe storms on power transmission systems. The economic analysis will quantify the economic value of the generated forecasting system. The first version of the two-level forecasting system is currently running in real-time at CCMC. An initial analysis of the system's capabilities has been completed, and further analysis is being carried out to optimize the performance of the system. Although the initial results are encouraging, definite conclusions about system's performance can be given only after more extensive analysis, and implementation of an automatic evaluation process using forecasted and observed geomagnetically induced currents from different nodes of the North American power transmission system. The final output of the Solar Shield will be a recommendation for an optimal forecasting system that may be transitioned into space weather operations.A. Pulkkinen (

Solar activity and transformer failures in the Greek national electric grid

“…Yet these currents have never been measured directly anywhere in Greece during the past and to the best of our knowledge there is no program to do so in the future. It is well known however that there is a good linear approximation between GICs and the geoelectric field (see e.g., Lindahl 2003;Pulkkinen 2003;Viljanen et al 2004;Pulkkinen et al 2008Pulkkinen et al , 2010Pulkkinen et al , 2012, given by the following equation…”

“…One can compute the geoelectric field from the geomagnetic field (horizontal components Bx, By) using the relations suggested in the literature given above (Lindahl 2003;Pulkkinen 2003;Viljanen et al 2004;Pulkkinen et al 2008Pulkkinen et al , 2010Pulkkinen et al , 2012: where l 0 is the permeability of the vacuum, x is the angular frequency of the fluctuating field (about 0.01-0.1 Hz) and Z(x) denotes the surface impedance which depends on the ground conductivity. These equations are derived from Faraday's Law making various simplifications.…”

Continental scale modelling of geomagnetically induced currents

“…Elsewhere in the world, the largest interest in GIC has been in North America as demonstrated, for example, by Albertson & Thorson (1974), Lanzerotti (1979), Bolduc (2002), Trichtchenko & Boteler (2004), Kappenman (2005) and Pulkkinen et al (2010). In 2000s, and especially motivated by the October 2003 event, GIC has reached attention also at lower geomagnetic latitudes: see Bernhardi et al (2008) (South Africa), Trivedi et al (2007) (Brazil), Liu et al (2009) (China), Watari et al (2009) (Japan) and Marshall et al (2011) (Australia).…”

Magnetic Storms and Induction Hazards

“…These developments will, in turn, facilitate predictions of ground-level magnetic disturbance, the accuracy of which can be measured against ground-based monitoring data [e.g., Pulkkinen et al , 2013 ]. Although forecasting induction hazards is still in its infancy and dedicated research efforts are required for further advancements, some new capabilities are being transitioned from testing at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center into operations at NOAA SWPC [e.g., Pulkkinen et al , 2010 ].…”