Solar pacing of storm surges, coastal flooding and agricultural losses in the Central Mediterranean

Abstract

Storm surges, leading to catastrophic coastal flooding, are amongst the most feared natural hazards due to the high population densities and economic importance of littoral areas. Using the Central Mediterranean Sea as a model system, we provide strong evidence for enhanced periods of storminess leading to coastal flooding during the last 4500 years. We show that long-term correlations can be drawn between storminess and solar activity, acting on cycles of around 2200-yr and 230-yr. We also find that phases of increased storms and coastal flooding have impacted upon mid- to late Holocene agricultural activity on the Adriatic coast. Based on the general trend observed during the second half of the 20th century, climate models are predicting a weakening of Mediterranean storminess. By contrast, our new data suggest that a decrease in solar activity will increase and intensify the risk of frequent flooding in coastal areas.

The 4.2 ka BP Event in the Mediterranean region: an overview

“…We note that, in Fig. 6, the identification of the 4.2 ka BP Event appears problematic (at least using AP % signal), which is not in the case for other pollen records in Italy (Magri and Parra, 2002;Di Rita and Magri, 2009;Di Rita et al, 2018a), the Iberian Peninsula (e.g., Blanco-Gonzalez et al, 2018;Lillios et al, 2016), or the Levant (e.g., Kaniewski et al, 2013Kaniewski et al, , 2018. Interestingly, some records may suggest that the 4.2 ka interval is characterized by several important oscillations rather than one simple long interval of specific (usually drier) climatic conditions (see, for instance, Skala Marion and Solufar or GLD1 in Fig.…”

“…1 and for references to Table 1. (Railsback et al, 2018) and in this issue (Kaniewski et al, 2018). However, there is no clear and coherent evidence of this in many of the different selected records.…”

“…The dotted red line corresponds to the limit of the growth of olive trees, taken as a rough indication of Mediterranean climate. Kaniewski et al, 2018). It is obvious that many archives are suitable for a multiproxy approach, but some proxies can be related more to local processes and correlate with climatic variables less directly than others can.…”

Early and mid-holocene environmental conditions in the eastern Adriatic recorded in speleotherms from Mala Špilja cave and Velika Špilja cave (Mljet island, Croatia)

“…Between ~5 ka and ~4 ka there is noticeable increase in δ There are many supporting evidence of drought conditions that began before 4.5 ka and has only moderately recovered (Rashid et al 2013). In Croatia, dry conditions at 4.0 ka have been observed in the reduced input of fresh water in the Mirna river valley in Istria (Kaniewski et al 2016). Phase of intense drought ~4.2 ka is recorded across North Africa (Gasse & Van Campo 1994), Eastern Mediterranean and the Red Sea (Bar-Matthews et al 1997) Italy (Buca della Renello cave) (Drysdale et al 2006).…”

Rekonstrukcija recentnih morfoloških promjena žala uz pomoć metode ponovljene fotografije – primjer žala Zogon na otoku Hvaru (Srednji Jadran)

“…Therefore, the coasts are key geographical areas today, as they lie at the of climate change (Kaniewski et al, 2016). The coast represents a dynamic geomorphological system that connects processes in the sea with those on land.…”