Solar modulation during the Holocene

Steinhilber, F.; Abreu, J. A.; Beer, Jürg

doi:10.5194/astra-4-1-2008

Cited by 110 publications

(128 citation statements)

References 16 publications

(53 reference statements)

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“…This approach, proposed Usoskin et al (2003Usoskin et al ( , 2004, is now a standard method used to reconstruct of the solar or heliospheric parameters in the past (e.g. Solanki et al 2004;Usoskin et al 2006aUsoskin et al , 2007Vonmoos et al 2006;Muscheler et al 2007;Steinhilber et al 2008). The method includes the following steps.…”

Section: Reconstruction Of the Open Flux From Cosmogenic Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene

Vieira

Solanki

Krivova

et al. 2011

A&A

323

279

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Context. Long-term records of solar radiative output are vital for understanding solar variability and past climate change. Measurements of solar irradiance are available for only the last three decades, which calls for reconstructions of this quantity over longer time scales using suitable models. Aims. We present a physically consistent reconstruction of the total solar irradiance for the Holocene. Methods. We extend the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) models to estimate the evolution of the total (and partly spectral) solar irradiance over the Holocene. The basic assumption is that the variations of the solar irradiance are due to the evolution of the dark and bright magnetic features on the solar surface. The evolution of the decadally averaged magnetic flux is computed from decadal values of cosmogenic isotope concentrations recorded in natural archives employing a series of physics-based models connecting the processes from the modulation of the cosmic ray flux in the heliosphere to their record in natural archives. We then compute the total solar irradiance (TSI) as a linear combination of the jth and jth + 1 decadal values of the open magnetic flux. In order to evaluate the uncertainties due to the evolution of the Earth's magnetic dipole moment, we employ four reconstructions of the open flux which are based on conceptually different paleomagnetic models. Results. Reconstructions of the TSI over the Holocene, each valid for a different paleomagnetic time series, are presented. Our analysis suggests that major sources of uncertainty in the TSI in this model are the heritage of the uncertainty of the TSI since 1610 reconstructed from sunspot data and the uncertainty of the evolution of the Earth's magnetic dipole moment. The analysis of the distribution functions of the reconstructed irradiance for the last 3000 years, which is the period that the reconstructions overlap, indicates that the estimates based on the virtual axial dipole moment are significantly lower at earlier times than the reconstructions based on the virtual dipole moment. We also present a combined reconstruction, which represents our best estimate of total solar irradiance for any given time during the Holocene. Conclusions. We present the first physics-based reconstruction of the total solar irradiance over the Holocene, which will be of interest for studies of climate change over the last 11 500 years. The reconstruction indicates that the decadally averaged total solar irradiance ranges over approximately 1.5 W/m 2 from grand maxima to grand minima.

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Section: Reconstruction Of the Open Flux From Cosmogenic Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene

Vieira

Solanki

Krivova

et al. 2011

A&A

323

279

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“…This variation has, in the main, been gradual during the Holocene, although there have been shorter-lived weakenings of the field (which may be geomagnetic reversal onsets that did not develop) such as the Laschamp event around 40 kyr ago. To allow studies of the remaining effect, solar variability, studies have corrected the cosmogenic isotope record to allow for the secular geomagnetic variations (e.g., Steinhilber et al 2008Steinhilber et al , 2009. Figure 3 investigates the relationship of GCRs and total solar radiance in modern data.…”

Section: Paleoclimate Studies and Solar Proxiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Brown (2008) reports that 3% of cloud variability on short timescales could be associated with GCRs, whereas Calogovic et al (2010) find no response at all. The potential importance of this effect is that there are long-term changes in the open solar flux F S (Lockwood et al 2009;Lockwood and Owens 2011) that yields the long-term changes in GCRs (McCracken and Beer 2007;Muscheler et al 2007;Steinhilber et al 2008) which could introduce long-term changes in climate if the mechanism was to be sufficiently effective.…”

Section: Cosmic Ray Modulation Of Cloudsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar Influence on Global and Regional Climates

Lockwood

2012

Surv Geophys

148

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The literature relevant to how solar variability influences climate is vast-but much has been based on inadequate statistics and non-robust procedures. The common pitfalls are outlined in this review. The best estimates of the solar influence on the global mean air surface temperature show relatively small effects, compared with the response to anthropogenic changes (and broadly in line with their respective radiative forcings). However, the situation is more interesting when one looks at regional and season variations around the global means. In particular, recent research indicates that winters in Eurasia may have some dependence on the Sun, with more cold winters occurring when the solar activity is low. Advances in modelling ''top-down'' mechanisms, whereby stratospheric changes influence the underlying troposphere, offer promising explanations of the observed phenomena. In contrast, the suggested modulation of low-altitude clouds by galactic cosmic rays provides an increasingly inadequate explanation of observations.

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“…To calculate the cyclic component backwards in time, we assume that its amplitude is proportional to the long-term solar activity φ(t). The latter can be reconstructed over the millennia from the cosmogenic isotope data, which gives a 22-year running mean of the modulation potential (Steinhilber et al 2008;Herbst et al 2010). Thus, the cyclic rms variability for any given year t can be calculated as rms 20 (F 11 …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…rms 20 value) is roughly the same in all three reconstructions. At the same time, there were periods before 1950 when the long-term solar activity changed significantly (McCracken et al 2004;Steinhilber et al 2008) and the reconstructions with large and small secular components are dramatically different.…”

Section: Comparison Of the Stellar And Historical Solar Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The place of the Sun among the Sun-like stars

Шапиро

Schmutz

Cessateur

et al. 2013

A&A

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Context. Monitoring of the photometric and chromospheric HK emission data series of stars similar to the Sun in age and average activity level showed that there is an empirical correlation between the average stellar chromospheric activity level and the photometric variability. In general, more active stars show larger photometric variability. Interestingly, the measurements and reconstructions of the solar irradiance show that the Sun is significantly less variable than indicated by the empirical relationship. Aims. We aim to identify possible reasons for the Sun to be currently outside of this relationship. Methods. We employed different scenarios of solar HK emission and irradiance variability and compared them with available time series of Sun-like stars. Results. We show that the position of the Sun on the diagram of photometric variability versus chromospheric activity changes with time. The present solar position is different from its temporal mean position as the satellite era of continuous solar irradiance measurements has accidentally coincided with a period of unusually high and stable solar activity. Our analysis suggests that although present solar variability is significantly smaller than indicated by the stellar data, the temporal mean solar variability might be in agreement with the stellar data. We propose that the continuation of the photometric program and its expansion to a larger stellar sample will ultimately allow us to constrain the historical solar variability.

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Solar modulation during the Holocene

Cited by 110 publications

References 16 publications

Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene

Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene

Solar Influence on Global and Regional Climates

The place of the Sun among the Sun-like stars

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