Solar geoengineering, uncertainty, and the price of carbon

Heutel, Garth; Moreno‐Cruz, Juan; Shayegh, Soheil

doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2017.11.002

Cited by 59 publications

(44 citation statements)

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“…34 Some recent papers have adopted nonstandard approaches to solving the Bellman equation, such as using "logarithmic", state-separable basis functions (Hwang et al, 2013(Hwang et al, , 2014Hwang, 2016) and fixing policy for some number of periods before approximating the remaining continuation value as a linear function of the per-period payoff (Heutel et al, 2015(Heutel et al, , 2016. We here caution against using less theoretically grounded methods for three reasons.…”

Section: Uncertainty and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lemoine and Traeger (2016a) quantify the channels through which aversion to ambiguity about a tipping point's threshold affects policy. Heutel et al (2016) tease apart the channels through which tipping points and geoengineering controls interact.…”

Section: The Effect Of Uncertainty On Policymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The policy implications of tipping points that affect the physical climate system vary strongly over plausible consequences of tipping and over assumptions about our ability to learn about tipping points, either prior to triggering them (Lemoine and Traeger, 2014) or after having triggering them (Lemoine and Traeger, 2016b). These policy implications also depend on whether deploying "geoengineering" technologies can mitigate the consequences of tipping (Heutel et al, 2016).…”

Section: Lemoine and Rudikmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Managing Climate Change Under Uncertainty: Recursive Integrated Assessment at an Inflection Point

Lemoine

Rudik

2017

Annu. Rev. Resour. Econ.

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Uncertainty is critical to questions about climate change policy. Recently developed recursive integrated assessment models have become the primary tools for studying and quantifying the policy implications of uncertainty. We decompose the channels through which uncertainty affects policy and quantify them in a recursive extension of a benchmark integrated assessment model. The first wave of recursive models has made valuable, pioneering efforts at analyzing disparate sources of uncertainty. We argue that frontier numerical methods will enable the next generation of recursive models to better capture the information structure of climate change and to thereby ask new types of questions about climate change policy.

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Section: Uncertainty and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Effect Of Uncertainty On Policymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Lemoine and Rudikmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Managing Climate Change Under Uncertainty: Recursive Integrated Assessment at an Inflection Point

Lemoine

Rudik

2017

Annu. Rev. Resour. Econ.

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“…These are based on the modifications in Heutel et al (2015), and more detail is available there, as well as in this paper's appendix. There are four modifications made to DICE to incorporate CDR and outgassing.…”

Section: Summary Of Modifications To Dicementioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Carbon Dioxide Removal in Face of Ocean Carbon Sink Feedback

2017

Self Cite

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in SummaryCarbon dioxide removal (CDR) is a potentially important climate strategy for attaining low climate stabilization objectives. However, climate analysis has indicated a possible weakening of the ocean carbon sinks -the largest in the world-in relation to CDR deployment. Here, we provide an economic appraisal to assess the sensitivity of CDR and conventional abatement to CO2 outgassing from the oceans. We develop a theoretical framework to study the impact of the ocean-to-atmosphere transfer on the optimal mitigation strategies under different regimes that control the relationship between CO2 outgassing and the amount of CDR. We show that the optimal levels of emissions and CDR are correlated to the effectiveness of CDR expressed as a linear function of atmospheric concentrations. We incorporate this effect into an integrated assessment model of climate and economy (DICE model) and confirm the theoretical findings with numerical simulations. Further, we perform a sensitivity analysis to find the range of optimal abatement and CDR actions under different values of the CDR effectiveness coefficient. Keywords AbstractCarbon dioxide removal (CDR) is a potentially important climate strategy for attaining low climate stabilization objectives. However, climate analysis has indicated a possible weakening of the ocean carbon sinks -the largest in the world-in relation to CDR deployment. Here, we provide an economic appraisal to assess the sensitivity of CDR and conventional abatement to CO2 outgassing from the oceans. We develop a theoretical framework to study the impact of the ocean-to-atmosphere transfer on the optimal mitigation strategies under different regimes that control the relationship between CO2 outgassing and the amount of CDR. We show that the optimal levels of emissions and CDR are correlated to the effectiveness of CDR expressed as a linear function of atmospheric concentrations. We incorporate this effect into an integrated assessment model of climate and economy (DICE model) and confirm the theoretical findings with numerical simulations. Further, we perform a sensitivity analysis to find the range of optimal abatement and CDR actions under different values of the CDR effectiveness coefficient.

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“…Second, the long-lived and strong path dependence and carbon lock-in in the energy market leads to imperfect substitution between the incumbent dirty assets and competing clean ones (Unruh, 2000(Unruh, , 2002Fouquet, 2016). 1 Third, a growing attention has been paid to building clean capital assets such as carbon capture and storage (CSS) facilities and solar geoengineering technologies that can break the link between dirty capital (fossil fuel power plants) and pollution damages (climate change) (e.g., Anderson and Newell, 2004;van der Zwaan and Gerlagh, 2009;Herzog, 2011;Moreno-Cruz, 2015Moreno-Cruz and Smulders, 2017;Heutel et al, 2016Heutel et al, , 2018. 2 In this sense, dirty and clean capital can coexist and serve as imperfect substitutes or gross complements.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Capital Accumulation, Green Paradox, and Stranded Assets: An Endogenous Growth Perspective

Jin¹,

Zhang

2019

SSRN Journal

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Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.

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Solar geoengineering, uncertainty, and the price of carbon

Cited by 59 publications

References 50 publications

Managing Climate Change Under Uncertainty: Recursive Integrated Assessment at an Inflection Point

Managing Climate Change Under Uncertainty: Recursive Integrated Assessment at an Inflection Point

Optimal Carbon Dioxide Removal in Face of Ocean Carbon Sink Feedback

Capital Accumulation, Green Paradox, and Stranded Assets: An Endogenous Growth Perspective

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