Solar Flare Prediction Using Magnetic Field Diagnostics above the Photosphere

Abstract

This is a repository copy of Solar flare prediction using magnetic field diagnostics above the photosphere.

Testing and Validating Two Morphological Flare Predictors by Logistic Regression Machine Learning

“…We are aware that the two tested models are not perfect and so a natural question to ask is: how can we improve further them? In the future, we intend to further explore the application of these two warning parameters both from machine learning and physics perspectives: 1) fine tune the threshold conditions of 2nd model, 2) extend the application of the S l−f and G S parameters at different solar atmosphere heights, 3) train the employed machine learning model at different atmospheric heights for an even more accurate estimation of flare event time and flare event intensity, and 4) identify an optimal height range giving the earliest possible flare prediction, similar to the concept described by Korsos et al (2020).…”

Critical Science Plan for the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST)

“…In addition to possible magnetic-field and flow diagnostics (e.g. Park et al, 2018;Kontogiannis et al, 2019;Korsós et al, 2020b, discussed in Section 4.2), these include multiple small-scale brightenings in Hα (Martres, Soru-Escaut, and Nakagawa, 1977;Druett et al, 2017) and/or soft xray (e.g. Tappin, 1991), plasmoid ejection (e.g.…”

Editorial: Data-Driven MHD - Novel Applications to the Solar Atmosphere

“…5) The space weather refers to the physical conditions in the interplanetary medium and in the solar terrestrial environment. It is basically generated by the solar activity, inclusive of the variable ambient solar wind, energetic flares, and huge and massive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (Guo et al, 2019;Korsós et al, 2020;Millas et al;Samara et al, 2021). Mitigation of the adverse space weather effects with economic and social benefits needs an improved knowledge of the Sun-Earth relation.…”

“…Different observatories have been employed since past several decades, both in space and at the ground, which put up a notably revamped knowledge about the physical processes transporting energy and mass in the Sun's magnetised atmosphere at diverse spatio-temporal scales (De Pontieu et al, 2004;Jess et al, 2009;Srivastava et al, 2017;Grant et al, 2018;Srivastava et al, 2018;Liu et al, 2019;Li et al, 2020;Van Doorsselaere et al, 2020). Remarkably, at the large spatial-scales, the key progress in understanding the origin of impulsive transient/eruptive phenomena such as energetic flares and bulky coronal mass ejections [CMEs, (Chen, 2011),], the related plasma processes detected at multi-wavelength radiative emissions varying from Gamma rays, X-rays to radio wave frequencies, as well as their space weather reverberations have illustrated a cardinal significance in the context of magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) modelling in recent era (Guo et al, 2019;Korsós et al;Millas et al;Samara et al, 2021). Besides the evolution of current age telescopes and their back-end cutting edge instruments for observing the dynamical plasma processes, noteworthy progress has been made in the theory of MHD waves, magnetic instabilities, global and local configurations of the magnetic fields and their energy build-up/release processes in the solar atmosphere.…”