Solar cycle variation of stratospheric ozone: Multiple regression analysis of long‐term satellite data sets and comparisons with models

Abstract

[1] Previous multiple regression analyses of the solar cycle variation of stratospheric ozone are improved by (1) analyzing three independent satellite ozone data sets with lengths extending up to 25 years and (2) comparing column ozone measurements with ozone profile data during the 1992-2003 period when no major volcanic eruptions occurred. Results show that the vertical structure of the tropical ozone solar cycle response has been consistently characterized by statistically significant positive responses in the upper and lower stratosphere and by statistically insignificant responses in the middle stratosphere ($28-38 km altitude). This vertical structure differs from that predicted by most models. The similar vertical structure in the tropics obtained for separate time intervals (with minimum response invariably near 10 hPa) is difficult to explain by random interference from the QBO and volcanic eruptions in the statistical analysis. The observed increase in tropical total column ozone approaching the cycle 23 maximum during the late 1990s occurred primarily in the lower stratosphere below the 30 hPa level. A mainly dynamical origin for the solar cycle total ozone variation at low latitudes is therefore likely. The amplitude of the solar cycle ozone variation in the tropical upper stratosphere derived here is somewhat reduced in comparison to earlier results. Additional data are needed to determine whether this upper stratospheric response is or is not larger than model estimates.Citation: Soukharev, B. E., and L. L. Hood (2006), Solar cycle variation of stratospheric ozone: Multiple regression analysis of longterm satellite data sets and comparisons with models,

A simple framework for modelling the photochemical response to solar spectral irradiance variability in the stratosphere

“…9, top panel). These results are within the range of the minimum-to-maximum differences calculated from the observations by Soukharev and Hood (2006) and Fioletov (2009), and is in agreement with the largest minimum-to-maximum differences calculated from simulations by 1-D models (e.g. Rozanov et al, 2002), 2-D models (e.g.…”

On the ambiguous nature of the 11 year solar cycle signal in upper stratospheric ozone

“…Hence, a reduced upper stratospheric SCS and improved ozone temperature relationship in SAGE II 7.0 indicates that the upper stratospheric SCS is likely smaller than previous estimates [e.g., Soukharev and Hood, 2006]. An analysis of MLS data over the recent solar cycle 23 period also shows negligible or even negative SCS in the upper stratosphere.…”

“…This understanding is based on the analysis of the longest record of ozone profile data (October 1984to August 2005 from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II satellite instrument [e.g., Soukharev and Hood, 2006;Randel and Wu, 2007]. …”

Signature of the 27-day solar rotation cycle in mesospheric OH and H<sub>2</sub>O observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder

“…Lean et al, 2005;Krivova and Solanki, 2008;Krivova et al, 2011;Shapiro et al, 2010Shapiro et al, , 2011band references therein). The most important cycles in the solar UV irradiance are the 11-yr solar activity cycle, seasonal and rotational cycles.…”

“…During the last decade the atmospheric response to the decadal solar variability has been studied based on observations (e.g. Soukharev and Hood, 2006;Fioletov, 2009;Randel et al, 2009) and the state-of-the-art transient chemistry-climate models (e.g. Egorova et al, 2004;Rozanov et al, 2004Rozanov et al, , 2008Schmidt et al, 2006;Marsh et al, 2007;Austin et al, 2008).…”