Solar cycle characteristics and their application in the prediction of cycle 25

Li, F. Y.; Kong, D. F.; Xie, J. L.; Xiang, N. B.; Xu, J. C.

doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2018.10.014

Cited by 31 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Sarp et al (2018) used non-linear time series modeling approach to predict a clearly stronger cycle 25 with an amplitude of 154±12 peaking in early 2023. Li et al (2018) used statistical modeling to reach a similar prediction with a predicted amplitude of 168.5±16.3 and peak of the cycle in October 2024. Both Sarp et al (2018) and Li et al (2018) predictions are fairly close, but slightly lower than our prediction.…”

Section: Precursors For Cycle Parametersmentioning

confidence: 74%

Prediction of even and odd sunspot cycles

Asikainen

Mantere

2022

Preprint

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Here we study the prediction of even and odd numbered sunspot cycles separately, thereby taking into account the Hale cyclicity of solar magnetism. We first show that the temporal evolution and shape of all sunspot cycles are extremely well described by a simple parameterized mathematical expression. We find that the parameters describing even sunspot cycles can be predicted quite accurately using the sunspot number 41 months prior to sunspot minimum as a precursor. We find that the parameters of the odd cycles can be best predicted with geomagnetic maximum geomagnetic aa index close to fall equinox within a 3-year window preceding the sunspot minimum. We use the found precursors to hindcast all previous sunspot cycles and evaluate the performance with a cross-validation methodology, which indicates that each past cycle is very accurately predicted. For the coming sunspot cycle 25 we predict an amplitude of 171 ± 23 and the end of the cycle in September 2029 ± 1.9 years. We are also able to make a rough prediction for cycle 26 based on the predicted cycle 25. While the uncertainty for the cycle amplitude is large we estimate that the cycle 26 will most likely be stronger than cycle 25. These results suggest an increasing trend in solar activity for the next decades.

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Section: Precursors For Cycle Parametersmentioning

confidence: 74%

Prediction of even and odd sunspot cycles

Asikainen

Mantere

2022

Preprint

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“…Our predicted amplitude of sunspot number 99.13 ± 14.97 for cycle 25 is in agreement with the recent predictions made by few other investigators (within the range of 82-140); (Upton & Hathaway 2018;Bhowmik & Nandy 2018;Petrovay et al 2018;Bisoi et al 2020;Sello 2019;Dani & Sulistiani 2019;Covas et al 2019;Labonville et al 2019;Miao et al 2020). On the other hand, some studies (Sarp et al 2018;Li et al 2018) contrarily predict the cycle 25 to have a higher value . This difference may be attributed to different predictors as well as numerical scheme used (such as non-linear prediction algorithm (154) and bimodal distribution (168)).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spotless days and geomagnetic index as the predictors of solar cycle 25

Burud,

Jain,

Awasthi

et al. 2021

Preprint

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We study the sunspot activity in relation to spotless days (SLDs) during the descending phase of solar cycle 11-24 to predict the amplitude of sunspot cycle 25. For this purpose, in addition to SLD, we also use the geomagnetic activity (aa index) during the descending phase of a given cycle. A very strong correlation of the SLD (R=0.68) and aa index (R=0.86) during the descending phase of a given cycle with the maximum amplitude of next solar cycle has been estimated.The empirical relationship led us to deduce the amplitude of cycle 25 to be 99.13± 14.97 and 104.23± 17.35 using SLD and aa index, respectively as predictors.Both the predictors provide comparable amplitude for solar cycle 25 and reveal that the solar cycle 25 will be weaker than cycle 24. Further we derive that the maximum of cycle 25 is likely to occur between February and March 2024. While the aa index has been used extensively in the past, this work establishes SLDs as another potential candidate for predicting the characteristics of the next cycle.

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“…Li et al (2018) [41] forecasted the SC 25 by applying the bimodal distribution and found that the trend of solar activity was stronger. In this work, we apply the EVT to the Chinese SN, and find that the distribution of the daily SN data has an upper bound, and in Table 5, we can find that the trend of our prediction is consistent with these previous predictions [39][40][41]. Comparing with previous research, we study the daily SN data from the Purple Mountain Observatory at the daily scale by the EVT.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our results are constant with, and further support the previous works. Non-linear prediction algorithm SC 25 stronger [40] The bimodal distribution SC 25 stronger [41]…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Chinese Sunspot Drawings and Their Digitizations-(VI) Extreme Value Theory Applied to the Sunspot Number Series from the Purple Mountain Observatory

et al. 2021

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Based on the daily sunspot number (SN) data (1954–2011) from the Purple Mountain Observatory, the extreme value theory (EVT) is employed for the research of the long-term solar activity. It is the first time that the EVT is applied on the Chinese SN. Two methods are used for the research of the extreme events with EVT. One method is the block maxima (BM) approach, which picks the maximum SN value of each block. Another one is the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach. After a declustering process, a threshold value (here it is 300) is set to pick the extreme values. The negative shape parameters are obtained by the two methods, respectively, indicating that there is an upper bound for the extreme SN value. Only one value of the N-year return level (RL) is estimated: N = 19 years. For N = 19 years, the RL values of SN obtained by two methods are similar with each other. The RL values are found to be 420 for the POT method and the BM method. Here, the trend of 25th solar cycle is predicted to be stronger, indicating that the length of meridional forms of atmospheric circulation will be increased.

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Solar cycle characteristics and their application in the prediction of cycle 25

Cited by 31 publications

References 45 publications

Prediction of even and odd sunspot cycles

Prediction of even and odd sunspot cycles

Spotless days and geomagnetic index as the predictors of solar cycle 25

Chinese Sunspot Drawings and Their Digitizations-(VI) Extreme Value Theory Applied to the Sunspot Number Series from the Purple Mountain Observatory

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