Solar and wind grid system value in the United States: The effect of transmission congestion, generation profiles, and curtailment

Abstract

Increased wind and solar energy generation is needed to meet decarbonization goals. However, increased electricity supply during sunny or windy hours drives down electricity prices, and thus wind and solar value, potentially slowing wind and solar deployment. Here, we measure value decline over time based on potential energy and capacity revenue at wind and solar plants across the United States. We assess the causes of value decline, comparing generation timing, transmission congestion, and curtailment, and discuss strategies for its mitigation.

Limitations of reanalysis data for wind power applications

“…It is the latter set of records that we compare to reanalysis‐based generation estimates. These generation records have been used in prior publications and provide some of the only hourly, plant‐level generation records that are publicly available in the United States 5,23 . Minimal data cleaning was conducted to remove sites with incomplete records and to truncate capacity factors at nominal power capacity (i.e., CF ≤ 1).…”

Levelized cost-based learning analysis of utility-scale wind and solar in the United States

“…Maintaining strong pressure for cost reduction may be especially important given the many institutional challenges that can slow deployment ( Cherp et al., 2021 ) and the increasing recognition that the grid-system value of wind and solar tends to decline as penetrations increase ( Das et al., 2020 ; Sivaram and Kann, 2016 ). So far, wind and solar cost reductions have kept pace with value declines, but future technology advancement will dictate whether these trends continue ( Millstein et al., 2021 ).…”

The quantity-quality transition in the value of expanding wind and solar power generation

“…For this system, we consider free lossless electricity transmission to give the greatest possible advantage to variable wind and solar resources relative to competing technologies. Because we do not include the constraints of grid infrastructure (Millstein et al, 2021), generation and curtailment values are likely to be underestimates. In fact, our simulations are not intended to guide siting decisions for real-world applications, but rather to quantify the importance of long-term planning and the potential advantage of considering the wind and solar resource spatiotemporal variability, complementarity, and correlation with residual demand.…”