Solar and Heliospheric Phenomena in October–November 2003: Causes and Effects

Veselovsky, I. S.; Panasyuk, M. I.; Avdyushin, S. I.; Bazilevskaya, G. A.; Белов, А. В.; Богачев, С. А.; Bogod, V. M.; Богомолов, А. В.; Bothmer, V.; Boyarchuk, K. A.; Vashenyuk, É. V.; Власов, В. И.; Gnezdilov, A. A.; Gorgutsa, R. V.; Grechnev, V. V.; Denisov, Yu. I.; Дмитриев, А. В.; Dryer, M.; Yermolaev, Yu. I.; Eroshenko, E. A.; Жеребцов, Г. А.; Zhitnik, I. A.; Zhukov, A. N.; Zastenker, G. N.; Zelenyǐ, L. M.; Zeldovich, M. A.; Ivanov-Kholodnyĭ, G. S.; Ignat'ev, A. P.; Ishkov, V. N.; Kolomiytsev, O. P.; Krasheninnikov, Igor A.; Kudela, K.; Kuzhevsky, B. M.; Kuzin, S. V.; Кузнецов, В. Д.; Kuznetsov, S. N.; Kurt, V. G.; Lazutin, L. L.; Leshchenko, L. N.; Litvak, M. L.; Logachev, Yu. I.; Lawrence, G.; Markeev, A. K.; Махмутов, В. С.; Mitrofanov, A. V.; Митрофанов, И. Г.; Morozov, O. V.; Myagkova, I. N.; Nusinov, A. A.; Oparin, S. N.; Panasenco, O.; Pertsov, A. A.; Петрукович, А. А.; Podorolsky, A. N.; Romashets, E.; Свертилов, С. И.; Svidsky, P. M.; Svirzhevskaya, A. K.; Svirzhevsky, N. S.; Slemzin, V. A.; Smith, Z.; Sobelman, Igor I.; Sobolev, D. E.; Stozhkov, Y. I.; Suvorova, A. V.; Sukhodrev, N. K.; Tindo, I. P.; Tokhchukova, S. Kh.; Фомичев, В. В.; Chashey, I. V.; Chertok, I. M.; Shishov, V. L.; Yushkov, B. Yu.; Yakovchouk, O. S.; Yanke, V. G.

doi:10.1023/b:cosm.0000046229.24716.02

Cited by 90 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…During 29th and 30th October, two high speed streams of the solar wind which are caused by coronal hole, produced large series of magnetic storms. During this period, huge groups of sunspots on the visible solar disk were observed Veselovsky et al, 2004). Radio measurements conducted during the October 2003 storm over the northern high-latitude region showed a pronounced scintillation activity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

GPS Ionospheric Total Electron Content and Scintillation Measurements during the October 2003 Magnetic Storm

Momani¹

2011

American Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences

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Problem Statement: Ionospheric scintillations, cause significant effects on satellite signals for communication and navigation in equatorial region and polar regions mainly during sever magnetic storms periods. This phenomenon is not fully understood due to few studies performed. The study investigates variability of Total Electron Content (TEC) and ionospheric scintillation during October 2003 magnetic storm over Antarctica using ground based GPS technique. Approach: The TEC/scintillation measuring system at Scott Base station, consists of Trimble TS5700 24-channel (a high-precision dual-frequency GPS receiver), a Trimble Zephyr Geodetic antenna and a notebook computer for data logging. The absolute GPS TEC was calculated from differential phase advance GPS observables (1-L2). The GPS signal-to-noise ratios (C/No) and 1/L2 carrier frequencies were employed to determine the scintillation index S 4 every 60 s, amplitude scintillation (in dB-Hz) and phase scintillation. Results: The GPS measurements during storm periods at Scott Base show pronounced phase and amplitude scintillation activities, sudden increase in TEC followed by trough-like figure depletions. The maximum value of phase scintillation during the main phase of third episode was 8.3 times the value during Sudden Storm Commencement (SSC) period. Measured amplitude scintillation and S4 index on both 1 and L2 signals are >15dB-Hz and >0.4dB-Hz respectively. Conclusion/Recommendation: The timing and intensity of TEC and scintillation measurements during the storm event were are in a good agreement with WDC measurements. For this particular event, the duration of enhanced periods were approximately 12 h while periods of TEC depletions were more than 30 h. This value implies better understanding of the polar ionospheric response to magnetic storm and eases efforts for better space weather prediction in this region.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

GPS Ionospheric Total Electron Content and Scintillation Measurements during the October 2003 Magnetic Storm

Momani¹

2011

American Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences

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“…But the main danger of geomagnetic storms is their potential to damage indispensable technological systems, such as satellites, power grids, gas, oil and water conduction systems, and transportation systems [e.g., Kasinskii et al, 2007]. It has been reported that historical geomagnetic storm events such as the March 1989 and October 2003 involved global damages in ground-based infrastructures, causing significant economic losses [Kappernman and Albertson, 1990;Veselovsky et al, 2004;Kappenman, 2005]. It is, therefore, important to have methods that predict geomagnetic storms and thus allow a quick response to such events [Singh et al, 2010].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Dst index using a swarm‐optimized neural network

et al. 2017

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A hybrid technique that combines an artificial neural network with a particle swarm optimization (ANN+PSO) was used to forecast the disturbance storm time (Dst) index from 1 to 6 h ahead. Our ANN was optimized by PSO to update ANN weights and to predict the short‐term Dst index using past values as input parameters. The database used contains 233,760 hourly data from 1 January 1990 to 31 August 2016, considering storms and quiet period, grouped into three data sets: learning set (with 116,880 hourly data points), validation set (with 58,440 data points), and testing set (with 58,440 data points). Several ANN topologies were studied, and the best architecture was determined by systematically adding neurons and evaluating the root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) and the correlation coefficient (R) during the training process. These results show that the hybrid algorithm is a powerful technique for forecasting the Dst index a short time in advance like t + 1 to t + 3, with RMSE from 3.5 nT to 7.5 nT, and R from 0.98 to 0.90. However, t + 4 to t + 6 predictions become slightly more uncertain, with RMSE from 8.8 nT to 10.9 nT, and R from 0.86 to 0.79. Additionally, an exhaustive analysis according to geomagnetic storm magnitude was conducted. In general, the results show that our hybrid algorithm can be correctly trained to forecast the Dst index with appropriate precision and that Dst past behavior significantly affects adequate training and predicting capabilities of the implemented ANN.

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“…[2] The term "space weather" generally refers to conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of spaceborne and groundbased technological systems and can endanger human life or health [National Space Weather Council, 1995]. Historic space weather events such as the March 1989 and October 2003 solar storms caused global disruptions to critical space-and ground-based infrastructures with important economic losses [Kappernman and Albertson, 1990;Veselovsky et al, 2004]. Odenwald et al [2007] suggested that a superstorm similar to the one occurred in 1859 could disable 80 satellites in 2012 and would result in losses in the range of $30-70 billion.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space weather effects on Earth's environment associated to the 24–25 October 2011 geomagnetic storm

et al. 2013

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[1] Space weather studies have increased due to human society dependence on spaceborne and terrestrial infrastructure vulnerable to its effects. In this paper, we present an interdisciplinary study of the effects of solar activity on the Earth's environment; specifically, we focus on the effects on the ionosphere and the geomagnetic field. A timeline of effects occurring on the Earth produced by one of the first relevant events of the present solar cycle (24-25 October 2011) is given. We have analyzed the solar wind shockwave from satellite data, the storm-time development, the ionospheric effects at global and local scales using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model fed with geomagnetic field-aligned current data from the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment, and ground ionosonde data from both hemispheres, at Ebre Observatory and Port Stanley locations. We have compared observed geomagnetic variations at high latitudes with those modeled by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model. We have analyzed rapid geomagnetic variations (e.g., solar flare effect, storm commencement, Pi2) also on both hemispheres, at Ebre Observatory and Livingston Island locations. Finally, we have estimated geoelectric field and geomagnetically induced currents in the northeast of Spain (Catalonia) produced by this geomagnetic disturbance.

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Solar and Heliospheric Phenomena in October–November 2003: Causes and Effects

Cited by 90 publications

References 16 publications

GPS Ionospheric Total Electron Content and Scintillation Measurements during the October 2003 Magnetic Storm

GPS Ionospheric Total Electron Content and Scintillation Measurements during the October 2003 Magnetic Storm

Forecasting the Dst index using a swarm‐optimized neural network

Space weather effects on Earth's environment associated to the 24–25 October 2011 geomagnetic storm

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