Soil Organic Carbon May Decline Under Climate Change: A Case Study in Mexican Forests

Abstract

Soil organic carbon is essential for ecosystem health, influencing water retention, soil fertility and biodiversity. However, climate change and deforestation are reducing SOC globally. This study models and projects changes in the SOC of Mexican forest soils under different climate scenarios. Over 100 models were developed relating SOC to the Lang index (precipitation and temperature), altitude, slope, bulk density, texture and soil depth. The results indicate that SOC can be effectively modelled to assess scenarios for decision making. The highest SOC levels were found in tropical rainforests and mesophyll forests and the lowest in broadleaved forests of the Sonoran plain. Climate change is projected to reduce SOC in forest ecosystems by up to 11%, especially in temperate forests. Conversely, mesophyll forests are expected to experience a slight increase in SOC of 3% due to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. This decline could lead to increased HGH and reduced carbon storage capacity. This study highlights the need for sustainable management practices and multidisciplinary research to mitigate these impacts and emphasises the importance of comprehensive strategies for long-term environmental sustainability.