“…Full details of the derivation and justifications for relevant approximations are provided in Supporting Information S1 (Figure S4 in Supporting Information S1), with the main steps briefly summarized here. Specifically, we combine the atmospheric and soil moisture budgets (Equations S5 and S11 in Supporting Information S1), a "bucket" model for evaporation (Equation S7 in Supporting Information S1; Manabe, 1969;Seneviratne et al, 2010;Cioni and Hohenegger, 2018;Cheng et al, 2021), a simple mesoscale circulation model (Equation S8 in Supporting Information S1; Cioni and Hohenegger, 2018;Cheng et al, 2021), and a simple seepage model (Equation S9 in Supporting Information S1; Laio et al, 2001); assume anomalies in net radiation are dominated by anomalies in shortwave radiation, and that effects of anomalous cloud albedo are negligible; and approximate the land surface as a zero heat capacity surface with low permeability at the base of the surface soil layer. d), (f), and (h), the comparison is with simulations in which cold pools were artificially suppressed.…”