Soil depth affects simulated carbon and water in the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model

Peterman, Wendy; Bachelet, Dominique; Ferschweiler, K.; Sheehan, Tim

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.09.025

Cited by 36 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…In the model, while frequent fires reduce woody encroachment, drought conditions favor woody encroachment by allowing deeply rooted woody plants to outcompete shallow rooted herbaceous where surface soil layers are dry and deep soil water is available. We found several areas, especially in complex terrain, where NATSGO soil depths were not representative and caused inaccurate simulation of ecosystem processes (e.g., Conklin, 2009;Peterman et al, 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected carbon stocks in the conterminousUSAwith land use and variable fire regimes

Bachelet¹,

Ferschweiler²,

Sheehan³

et al. 2015

Global Change Biology

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The dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) MC2 was run over the conterminous USA at 30 arc sec (~800 m) to simulate the impacts of nine climate futures generated by 3GCMs (CSIRO, MIROC and CGCM3) using 3 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) in the context of the LandCarbon national carbon sequestration assessment. It first simulated potential vegetation dynamics from coast to coast assuming no human impacts and naturally occurring wildfires. A moderate effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency and growth enhanced carbon sequestration but did not greatly influence woody encroachment. The wildfires maintained prairie-forest ecotones in the Great Plains. With simulated fire suppression, the number and impacts of wildfires was reduced as only catastrophic fires were allowed to escape. This greatly increased the expansion of forests and woodlands across the western USA and some of the ecotones disappeared. However, when fires did occur, their impacts (both extent and biomass consumed) were very large. We also evaluated the relative influence of human land use including forest and crop harvest by running the DGVM with land use (and fire suppression) and simple land management rules. From 2041 through 2060, carbon stocks (live biomass, soil and dead biomass) of US terrestrial ecosystems varied between 155 and 162 Pg C across the three emission scenarios when potential natural vegetation was simulated. With land use, periodic harvest of croplands and timberlands as well as the prevention of woody expansion across the West reduced carbon stocks to a range of 122-126 Pg C, while effective fire suppression reduced fire emissions by about 50%. Despite the simplicity of our approach, the differences between the size of the carbon stocks confirm other reports of the importance of land use on the carbon cycle over climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected carbon stocks in the conterminousUSAwith land use and variable fire regimes

Bachelet¹,

Ferschweiler²,

Sheehan³

et al. 2015

Global Change Biology

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“…However, in the ModClim and HighClim scenarios, widespread shifts in potential forest type were evident. Note that results here are sensitive to the prescription of soil water holding capacity (Peterman et al 2014). Previous simulations of climate change impacts in the WRB area using a climate envelope approach (Shafer et al 2001) and a gap-phase biogeography model (Busing et al 2007) have similarly suggested retention of forests but changes in forest type.…”

Section: Changes In Vegetation Cover Typementioning

confidence: 92%

Projected climate change impacts on forest land cover and land use over the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA

2015

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Upland forests in the Pacific Northwest currently provide a host of ecosystem services. However, the regional climate is expected to warm significantly over the course of the 21st century and this factor must be accounted for in planning efforts to maintain those services. Here we couple a dynamic global vegetation model (MC2) with a landscape simulation model (Envision) to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on the vegetation cover and the disturbance regime in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon. Three CMIP5 climate model scenarios, downscaled to a 4 km spatial resolution, were employed. In our simulations, the dominant potential vegetation cover type remained forest throughout the basin, but forest type transitioned from primarily evergreen needleleaf to a mixture of broadleaf and needleleaf growth forms adapted to a warmer climate. By 2100, there was a difference (i.e., climate/vegetation disequilibrium) between potential and actual forest type for 20-50 % of the forested area. In the moderate to high climate change scenarios, the average area burned per year increased three to nine fold from the present day. Forest harvest on private land is projected to be affected late in the century because of fire altering the availability of rotation-age stands. A generally more disturbed and open forest landscape is expected, which may significantly alter the hydrologic cycle.Climatic Change

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“…Uncertainties have previously been investigated in the distributed meteorological data (e.g., Hasenauer et al 2003;Oyler et al 2015), soil depth and texture (Peterman et al 2014), disturbance mapping , and stand age mapping (Ohmann and Gregory 2002). Observations of Biome-BGC parameters were compiled by (White et al 2000), and there is obvious species-level variation within a plant functional type.…”

Section: Modeling Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional carbon cycle responses to 25 years of variation in climate and disturbance in the US Pacific Northwest

et al. 2016

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Variation in climate, disturbance regime, and forest management strongly influence terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. Spatially distributed, process-based, carbon cycle simulation models provide a means to integrate information on these various influences to estimate carbon pools and flux over large domains. Here we apply the Biome-BGC model over the four-state Northwest US region for the interval from 1986 to 2010. Landsat data were used to characterize disturbances, and forest inventory data were used to parameterize the model. The overall disturbance rate on forest land across the region was 0.8 % year -1 , with 49 % as harvests, 28 % as fire, and 23 % as pest/pathogen. Net ecosystem production (NEP) for the 2006-2010 interval on forestland was predominantly positive (a carbon sink) throughout the region, with maximum values in the Coast Range, intermediate values in the Cascade Mountains, and relatively low values in the Inland Rocky Mountain ecoregions. Localized negative NEPs were mostly associated with recent disturbances. There was large interannual variation in regional NEP, with notably low values across the region in 2003, which was also the warmest year in the interval. The recent (2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was positive for the region (14.4 TgC year -1 ). Despite a lower area-weighted mean NECB, public forestland contributed a larger proportion to the total NECB because of its larger area. Aggregated forest inventory data and inversion modeling are beginning to provide opportunities for evaluating model-simulated regional carbon stocks and fluxes.

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Soil depth affects simulated carbon and water in the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model

Cited by 36 publications

References 26 publications

Projected carbon stocks in the conterminousUSAwith land use and variable fire regimes

Projected carbon stocks in the conterminousUSAwith land use and variable fire regimes

Projected climate change impacts on forest land cover and land use over the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA

Regional carbon cycle responses to 25 years of variation in climate and disturbance in the US Pacific Northwest

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