Software systems for situation analysis and decision support on the basis of cognitive maps: Approaches and methods

Кулинич, А. А.

doi:10.1134/s0005117914070157

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Among them, one can single out the Canvas DSS (Kulinich, 2002), which allows for conceptual analysis and modeling of complex and insufficiently defined political, economic, or social situations. This system can be used to develop management strategies and mechanisms for their implementation, as well as to create policy documents for the strategic development of a country, region, enterprise, firm, etc.…”

Section: Research Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cognitive Modeling as a Forecasting Tool

Makarenya,

Mannaa,

Kalinichenko

et al. 2024

International Journal on Smart Sensing and Intelligent Systems

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Under the current geopolitical conditions and the economic sanctions imposed on Russia, there is an objective need to formulate a strategic development plan for the economy as a whole and for specific sectors of the economy. Various methods and tools can be used for strategic planning. One of the methods of strategic planning is the program-targeted method of planning, which has proved to be an effective method of foresight. It is possible to speak about failures of planning activities, but these failures were related not only to shortcomings and application of science-based planning methods but also to the efficiency of the managerial apparatus, which took decisions. It should be noted that it was in the period when science-based planning methods were applied that our country managed to form and develop industrial production in various sectors, and the issue of import substitution did not arise then, as all the stages of the product life cycle were represented at all the enterprises. Currently, the country is facing the problem of strategic development in the context of the imposed economic sanctions. The volume of sanctions is increasing day by day and one can only speculate on the future restrictions imposed. Therefore, there is a need to forecast activities at the level of the whole country, individual industries, and enterprises. One such method is cognitive modeling based on fuzzy logic. This approach involves the use of cognitive principles and methods to understand the behavior of individuals in the system, as well as the interactions and feedback loops between the various components. The purpose of this paper is to retrospectively analyze the application of the cognitive method to modeling. Information systems that have been developed in our country to implement the tasks of cognitive modeling are reviewed, and an assessment of existing software products is made. Also, theoretical materials on cognitive approach in modeling are presented in order to understand the application of this toolkit for modeling socioeconomic systems using elements of fuzzy logic.

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Section: Research Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cognitive Modeling as a Forecasting Tool

Makarenya,

Mannaa,

Kalinichenko

et al. 2024

International Journal on Smart Sensing and Intelligent Systems

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“…where Z(t) = (z i (t))the initial vector of the values increments of concepts at time t; Z(t þ 1) = (z i (t þ 1))vector of the values increment of concepts at time t þ 1, z i (t) [ [À1;1]; W = |f ij |adjacency matrix; f ij [ [À1;1] characterizes the causal link force. The increment of the map concept z i (t)[ Z(t), Vt, is represented by a pair (Kulinich, 2014): hz i (t), c i (t)i, c i (t)consonance of concept, 0 # c i (t) # 1, using equation ( 8):…”

Section: Results By Stagementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Causal relationships formalizing was carried out on the basis of the system of situation analysis and decision-making support based on the cognitive maps "Kanva" (hereinafter Kanva system) (Kulinich, 2014). The Kanva system has already been successfully applied in other scientific studies (Ismikhanov et al, 2017).…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reputational risk management in conditions of credibility gap in the banking system

Trostianska

Семенча

2019

JFEP

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Purpose This paper aims to provide appropriate and effective methods for diagnosing and managing the reputational risk of a bank. Design/methodology/approach Using the data-mining system CONFOR, the authors have defined and arranged in the objective way the factors influencing the reputational risk level of a bank, with specific factor groups assigned. The mathematical tools of the theory of graphs and cognitive mapping are used for building the cognitive map of reputational risk assessment of a bank. To enable choosing which risk management strategies to use, the methods of impulse modeling and scenario analysis are applied for the purpose of prognostication. Findings The authors proposed an integrated approach to the objective determination of the reputational risk level and an easy-to-use choice of risk management scenarios considering all components of management decision making and the main managerial functions. Practical implications The range of tools proposed can be used as a simple measure of the bank's reputational risk level, as a component of risk management model, and as a strategic risk management tool. Implementing this approach at the level of the central bank will facilitate realization of its strategic program for restoring confidence in the banking system as a whole. Originality/value A relatively greater objectivity in the reputational risk assessment of the bank was achieved, with each stage formalized and confirmed by an economic and mathematical basis, risk parameters quantified. The authors have developed a comprehensive approach to the reputational risk level assessment (the integral assessment included) as well as the management algorithm.

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“…Mathematical apparatus of cognitive modelling strategy. The static analysis of the fuzzy cognitive map (Kosko 1986;Kulinich 2014) was performed using the operation of the transitive closure of the corresponding cognitive matrix and calculation of the main system indicators according to the method, presented in Table S1 [Table S1 in electronic supplementary material (ESM); for the supplementary material see the electronic version].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The FCM behaviour was analyzed by employing the mathematical apparatus of impulse process (Aguilar 2005;Kulinich 2014;Lopez and Salmeron 2014). This apparatus allows predicting the value of concepts in discrete moments.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Parameters of the strategy for managing the economic growth of agricultural production in Russia

Anokhina¹

2020

AGR ECON-CZECH

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Agricultural economic growth requires management due to poor structurization. The study aimed to determine the parameters of the management strategy for the economic growth of agriculture in Russia. The research methodology relies on cognitive technologies of modelling the strategic alternatives of the economic development of the industrial complex using fuzzy cognitive logic. Static and dynamic analysis of the fuzzy cognitive maps on structural and dynamic indicators of agricultural economic growth in Russia allowed the forecast of the industry trends, influenced by various management factors. The option of an integrated management strategy for the economic growth of agriculture in Russia is proposed together with strategic maps, justified as a tool for its implementation. The created strategic alternative will allow the Russian agricultural and industrial complex to use the existing agricultural potential to achieve the target growth indicators and ensure sustainability.

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Software systems for situation analysis and decision support on the basis of cognitive maps: Approaches and methods

Abstract: This paper considers the methods of influence analysis, structure analysis, inverse problem solving and scenario analysis implemented in cognitive map-based modeling software systems. The methods serve for designing control strategies in ill-structured situations.

Cited by 7 publications

References 11 publications

Cognitive Modeling as a Forecasting Tool

Cognitive Modeling as a Forecasting Tool

Reputational risk management in conditions of credibility gap in the banking system

Parameters of the strategy for managing the economic growth of agricultural production in Russia

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