SOCRATES-CoMix: a platform for timely and open-source contact mixing data during and in between COVID-19 surges and interventions in over 20 European countries
Abstract:Background
SARS-CoV-2 dynamics are driven by human behaviour. Social contact data are of utmost importance in the context of transmission models of close-contact infections.
Methods
Using online representative panels of adults reporting on their own behaviour as well as parents reporting on the behaviour of one of their children, we collect contact mixing (CoMix) behaviour in various phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in over 20 European countries.
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“…The CoMix survey contributes to the growing study of social contacts and their implication in disease transmission. In addition to data collection in the UK, the CoMix study has collected data from participants in 20 additional countries throughout Europe [ 29 ]. While social contact surveys in conducted in various countries demonstrate different social contact patterns and, therefore, should be interpreted with caution when results are applied to a setting other than that of the study setting, our results demonstrate the scale of changes that can occur within a population over time, especially during a pandemic.…”
Background
During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the United Kingdom government imposed public health policies in England to reduce social contacts in hopes of curbing virus transmission. We conducted a repeated cross-sectional study to measure contact patterns weekly from March 2020 to March 2021 to estimate the impact of these policies, covering 3 national lockdowns interspersed by periods of less restrictive policies.
Methods and findings
The repeated cross-sectional survey data were collected using online surveys of representative samples of the UK population by age and gender. Survey participants were recruited by the online market research company Ipsos MORI through internet-based banner and social media ads and email campaigns. The participant data used for this analysis are restricted to those who reported living in England. We calculated the mean daily contacts reported using a (clustered) bootstrap and fitted a censored negative binomial model to estimate age-stratified contact matrices and estimate proportional changes to the basic reproduction number under controlled conditions using the change in contacts as a scaling factor. To put the findings in perspective, we discuss contact rates recorded throughout the year in terms of previously recorded rates from the POLYMOD study social contact study.
The survey recorded 101,350 observations from 19,914 participants who reported 466,710 contacts over 53 weeks. We observed changes in social contact patterns in England over time and by participants’ age, personal risk factors, and perception of risk. The mean reported contacts for adults 18 to 59 years old ranged between 2.39 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.20 to 2.60) contacts and 4.93 (95% CI 4.65 to 5.19) contacts during the study period. The mean contacts for school-age children (5 to 17 years old) ranged from 3.07 (95% CI 2.89 to 3.27) to 15.11 (95% CI 13.87 to 16.41). This demonstrates a sustained decrease in social contacts compared to a mean of 11.08 (95% CI 10.54 to 11.57) contacts per participant in all age groups combined as measured by the POLYMOD social contact study in 2005 to 2006. Contacts measured during periods of lockdowns were lower than in periods of eased social restrictions. The use of face coverings outside the home has remained high since the government mandated use in some settings in July 2020. The main limitations of this analysis are the potential for selection bias, as participants are recruited through internet-based campaigns, and recall bias, in which participants may under- or overreport the number of contacts they have made.
Conclusions
In this study, we observed that recorded contacts reduced dramatically compared to prepandemic levels (as measured in the POLYMOD study), with changes in reported contacts correlated with government interventions throughout the pandemic. Despite easing of restrictions in the summer of 2020, the mean number of reported contacts only returned to about half of that observed prepandemic at its highest recorded level. The CoMix survey provides a unique repeated cross-sectional data set for a full year in England, from the first day of the first lockdown, for use in statistical analyses and mathematical modelling of COVID-19 and other diseases.
“…The CoMix survey contributes to the growing study of social contacts and their implication in disease transmission. In addition to data collection in the UK, the CoMix study has collected data from participants in 20 additional countries throughout Europe [ 29 ]. While social contact surveys in conducted in various countries demonstrate different social contact patterns and, therefore, should be interpreted with caution when results are applied to a setting other than that of the study setting, our results demonstrate the scale of changes that can occur within a population over time, especially during a pandemic.…”
Background
During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the United Kingdom government imposed public health policies in England to reduce social contacts in hopes of curbing virus transmission. We conducted a repeated cross-sectional study to measure contact patterns weekly from March 2020 to March 2021 to estimate the impact of these policies, covering 3 national lockdowns interspersed by periods of less restrictive policies.
Methods and findings
The repeated cross-sectional survey data were collected using online surveys of representative samples of the UK population by age and gender. Survey participants were recruited by the online market research company Ipsos MORI through internet-based banner and social media ads and email campaigns. The participant data used for this analysis are restricted to those who reported living in England. We calculated the mean daily contacts reported using a (clustered) bootstrap and fitted a censored negative binomial model to estimate age-stratified contact matrices and estimate proportional changes to the basic reproduction number under controlled conditions using the change in contacts as a scaling factor. To put the findings in perspective, we discuss contact rates recorded throughout the year in terms of previously recorded rates from the POLYMOD study social contact study.
The survey recorded 101,350 observations from 19,914 participants who reported 466,710 contacts over 53 weeks. We observed changes in social contact patterns in England over time and by participants’ age, personal risk factors, and perception of risk. The mean reported contacts for adults 18 to 59 years old ranged between 2.39 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.20 to 2.60) contacts and 4.93 (95% CI 4.65 to 5.19) contacts during the study period. The mean contacts for school-age children (5 to 17 years old) ranged from 3.07 (95% CI 2.89 to 3.27) to 15.11 (95% CI 13.87 to 16.41). This demonstrates a sustained decrease in social contacts compared to a mean of 11.08 (95% CI 10.54 to 11.57) contacts per participant in all age groups combined as measured by the POLYMOD social contact study in 2005 to 2006. Contacts measured during periods of lockdowns were lower than in periods of eased social restrictions. The use of face coverings outside the home has remained high since the government mandated use in some settings in July 2020. The main limitations of this analysis are the potential for selection bias, as participants are recruited through internet-based campaigns, and recall bias, in which participants may under- or overreport the number of contacts they have made.
Conclusions
In this study, we observed that recorded contacts reduced dramatically compared to prepandemic levels (as measured in the POLYMOD study), with changes in reported contacts correlated with government interventions throughout the pandemic. Despite easing of restrictions in the summer of 2020, the mean number of reported contacts only returned to about half of that observed prepandemic at its highest recorded level. The CoMix survey provides a unique repeated cross-sectional data set for a full year in England, from the first day of the first lockdown, for use in statistical analyses and mathematical modelling of COVID-19 and other diseases.
“…Our study is based on Belgian social contact data collected within the CoMix survey [12, 13] during the COVID-pandemic between December 2020 and May 2021. These data are stored, processed and stratified by age by means of the online Socrates tool [13, 26, 27].…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Our study is based on Belgian social contact data collected within the CoMix survey [12, 13] during the COVID-pandemic between December 2020 and May 2021. These data are stored, processed and stratified by age by means of the online Socrates tool [13, 26, 27]. Participants were asked to fill in a contact dairy including all contacts made during a specific day, reporting the type of contact, location, and age of the contacted person, with a contact defined as an in-person conversation of at least a few words, or a skin-to-skin contact.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The waves are conducted with an interval of two weeks (14 days). For more detailed information on the CoMix survey and the stratification process, the reader is referred to [12,13]. A detailed timetable of the CoMix waves and survey periods is presented in Table A of We use the following notation.…”
Section: Social Contact Datamentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The first large-scale social contact study, POLYMOD [11], collected social contact patterns for eight European countries between May 2005 and September 2006. In 2020-2021, social contact data has been collected in the so-called CoMix survey [12][13][14][15], initially in the United Kingdom, The Netherlands and Belgium and afterwards extended to other European countries. Comix collected timely social contact information during the COVID-19 pandemic.…”
Several important aspects related to SARS-CoV-2 transmission are not well known due to a lack of appropriate data. However, mathematical and computational tools can be used to extract part of this information from the available data, like some hidden age-related characteristics. In this paper, we investigate age-specific differences in susceptibility to and infectiousness upon contracting SARS-CoV-2 infection. More specifically, we use panel-based social contact data from diary-based surveys conducted in Belgium combined with the next generation principle to infer the relative incidence and we compare this to real-life incidence data. Comparing these two allows for the estimation of age-specific transmission parameters. Our analysis implies the susceptibility in children to be around half of the susceptibility in adults, and even lower for very young children (preschooler). However, the probability of adults and the elderly to contract the infection is decreasing throughout the vaccination campaign, thereby modifying the picture over time.
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