Socioeconomically Informed Use of Geostatistics to Track Adaptation of Resource-Poor Communities to Climate Change

Abstract

As the Green Climate Fund continues to make concerted efforts to leverage funding for resource-constrained communities in the global south under the aegis of increasing climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa, there is urgent and compelling need for tools that assist organizations to track the effectiveness of adaptation interventions in reducing vulnerability. This chapter offers a cost-effective methodology to track adaptation by using a case-study-based identification of communities with diminishing coping capacities in Raymond Mhlaba Local Municipality in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. Multistep geostatistical techniques were utilized in the ArcGIS 10.5 software environment to rank and spatialize changes in adaptation by using demographic census data for the years 2001 and 2011. Results of the analysis revealed that 12 communities had declining or static adaptive capacities between 2001 and 2011, while 10 communities had long-term decrease in adaptive capacities from 2001 to 2011 from a sampling universe of 134 communities. These findings are important because they demonstrate that the methodology can be effectively used to provide actionable information on the prevalence of low adaptation capacities at appropriate temporal and spatial scales, in order to guide the allocation of limited resources to the most deserving communities.