Keywords labor supply; aging; mortality; health Countries around the world are facing two conflicting long-run phenomena. Health and longevity have improved substantially over the past several decades. At the same time, the labor force participation of men at older ages has declined substantially. Assuming that improved health increases the productive capacity of older persons, the improvement in the capacity to work has not been allocated to increasing employment. With many countries facing financial stress on social security and/or health care programs the capacity to prolong working lives may be an important option in paying for the higher costs that increased longevity places on these programs. In this paper, we use mortality as a measure of health and the capacity to work at older ages. We think of mortality as one important indicator of health. We understand that mortality is only one of many potential measures of health. For our purposes, however, mortality has the advantage that it is comparable within countries over time and comparable across countries at a point in time and thus allows the comparisons that we make in this paper. We aim to shed light on the dispersion across countries in work at older ages given health as measured by mortality.We compare results across the twelve OECD countries that are participating in the International Social Security Project for which long time-series of labor force and mortality data are available. 1 Our analysis is based on data for the fifty year time period 1957 to 2007. We focus primarily on data for ages 60 to 64, since in many countries the greatest transition between work and non-work occurs in this age range. We use data for men only, since longrun analysis of the employment of women is complicated by the cross-cohort growth of the female work-force in the second half of the twentieth century.1 Our twelve countries are Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. These countries correspond to the twelve countries used in the International Social Security project studying both elderly employment (Gruber and Wise 2004) and mortality and health at older ages (Wise 2011) and the summary to the latter volume (Milligan and Wise 2011).
HHS Public AccessAuthor manuscript J Popul Ageing. Author manuscript; available in PMC 2016 March 01.
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Author ManuscriptThe improvement in mortality in developed countries is well-known and many papers discuss the evidence. A summary of the trends in developed countries in life expectancy at age 50 is provided in Glei, Meslé, and Vallin (2010). They find that, in both the 1950 to 1980 and the 1980 to 2004 periods, lower mortality from heart disease and other circulatory diseases provide the biggest source of improvements across countries for men. Crimmins, Garcia, and Kim (2010) find a weak association between health differences and life expectancy across countries, although Japan has the best h...