Sociocultural behavioral traits in modelling the prediction of COVID-19 infection rates

Abstract

PurposeOver the past decades, many health authorities and public policy experts have traditionally relied on indicators that are dependent on a nation's economy, its health-care infrastructure advancements, and superiority in biomedical sciences and technology to predict potential infection rates should a health pandemic occur. One such commonly relied-upon indicator was that of the Global Health Security (GHS) Index. However, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has shown how such variables prove to be inaccurate in predicting the infection rates during a global health pandemic. Hence, this paper proposes the utilization of socio-cultural behavioral traits to predict a country's COVID-19 infection rates.Design/methodology/approachThis is achieved by proposing a model involving the classification and regression tree (CART) algorithm and a Poisson regression against the six selected cultural behavioral predictors consisting of individualism, power distance, masculinity, uncertainty avoidance, long-term orientation, and indulgence.FindingsThe results show that all the selected cultural behavioral predictors are significant in impacting COVID-19 infection rates. Furthermore, the model outperforms the conventional GHS Index model based on a means squared error comparison.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors hope that this study would continue promoting the use of cultures and behaviors in modeling the spread of health diseases.Practical implicationsThe authors hope that their works could prove beneficial to public office holders, as well as health experts working in health facilities, in better predicting potential outcomes during a health pandemic, thus allowing them to plan and allocate resources efficiently.Originality/valueThe results are a testament to the fact that sociocultural behavioral traits are more reliant predictors in modeling cross-national infection rates of global health pandemics, like that of COVID-19, as compared to economic-centric indicators.