Socio-political feasibility of coal power phase-out and its role in mitigation pathways

Muttitt, Greg; Price, James; Pye, Steve; Welsby, Dan

doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01576-2

Cited by 46 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 42 publications

(24 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…IAMs primarily take into account economic costs but do not fully address political feasibility (Jewell & Cherp, 2020). Including socio-political constraints, however, could have major impacts on model results and policy implications (Muttitt et al, 2023). Our interviewees confirm this, citing a lack of information such as political incentives, social preferences, and acceptance in large-scale models (P1, P3).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards integration? Considering social aspects with large-scale computational models for nature-based solutions

Schulte,

Yowargana,

Nielsen

et al. 2024

Glob. Sustain.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Non-Technical Summary Information on social aspects of climate change intervention, such as behavioral choices and public acceptance, are often not included in global climate models. As a result, they have been critiqued for not adequately reflecting ‘real world’ conditions. At the same time, these models are important and influential policy tools. To improve these models, calls are being made for more interaction – or integration – between the social science and modelling research communities. Yet, it remains unclear how to achieve this. Responding to this gap, we explore what kind of integration is currently taking place, how, and opportunities for further development. Technical Summary The importance of social drivers of climate change interventions, or social aspects, is currently underrepresented in computational modelling projections. These parameters are largely excluded from estimates of technical mitigation potential, feasibility, and tools like integrated assessment models (IAMs) and other large-scale models that influence the development of climate policies and notable bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This paper contributes to calls being made within the research community to address this gap and strengthen linkages between modelling practices and social science insights. Using nature-based solutions (NbS) as a framing, we present the results of a critical literature review and interviews with multidisciplinary experts reflecting on the current state of integration around IAMs and opportunities to better capture social aspects within large-scale modelling processes. Our findings confirm the need to incorporate social aspects in IAMs, but highlight that how this happens in practice may depend on context, project objectives, or pragmatic choices rather than conceptual notions about what ‘good’ integration is. Nevertheless, some integration strategies are better than others, and concerns about data limitations and low capacity of the IAM community for engaging in integration can be overcome with sufficient support and complementary efforts from the broader research community. Social Media Summary Integrating social aspects in large-scale models requires complementary efforts from the broader research community.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards integration? Considering social aspects with large-scale computational models for nature-based solutions

Schulte,

Yowargana,

Nielsen

et al. 2024

Glob. Sustain.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A particularly welcome development would be to extend the application of feasibility spaces to a broader range of technological solutions, policies, and social practices. There are also promising advances in using the feasibility space to develop new scenarios based on assumptions grounded in empirical examination of reference cases (Bi et al, 2023; Muttitt et al, 2023; Vinichenko et al, 2023). In the future we hope that the science and art of constructing feasibility spaces will be critically examined and continuously improved by diverse scientific communities dealing with both climate mitigation and adaptation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The feasibility of climate action: Bridging the inside and the outside view through feasibility spaces

Jewell

Cherp

2023

WIREs Climate Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The feasibility of different options to reduce the risks of climate change has engaged scholars for decades. Yet there is no agreement on how to define and assess feasibility. We define feasible as “do‐able under realistic assumptions.” A sound feasibility assessment is based on causal reasoning; enables comparison of feasibility across climate options, contexts, and implementation levels; and reflexively considers the agency of its audience. Global climate scenarios are a good starting point for assessing the feasibility of climate options since they represent causal pathways, quantify implementation levels, and consider policy choices. Yet, scenario developers face difficulties to represent all relevant causalities, assess the realism of assumptions, assign likelihood to potential outcomes, and evaluate the agency of their users, which calls for external feasibility assessments. Existing approaches to feasibility assessment mirror the “inside” and the “outside” view coined by Kahneman and co‐authors. The inside view considers climate change as a unique challenge and seeks to identify barriers that should be overcome by political choice, commitment, and skill. The outside view assesses feasibility through examining historical analogies (reference cases) to the given climate option. Recent studies seek to bridge the inside and the outside views through “feasibility spaces,” by identifying reference cases for a climate option, measuring their outcomes and relevant characteristics, and mapping them together with the expected outcomes and characteristics of the climate option. Feasibility spaces are a promising method to prioritize climate options, realistically assess the achievability of climate goals, and construct scenarios with empirically‐grounded assumptions.This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Representing Uncertainty The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Decarbonizing Energy and/or Reducing Demand

show abstract

“…More generally, our research serves as a model for quantifying the social and political concerns of rapid transitions 51,52 so that they can be considered on par with economic aspects. In spite of the cost-effectiveness of coal phase-out, its feasibility is often challenged on socio-political grounds 10,11,15,22,53 . We show that political will and social acceptance have a tangible economic component which can be at least partially quantified in monetary terms.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With cheaper renewable electricity already available in many markets 9 , phasing out coal is technically and economically feasible. Nevertheless, some believe the rapid coal phase-out depicted in many climate scenarios is infeasible due to technological inertia and socio-political barriers [10][11][12] . What would it take to overcome these barriers?…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Socio-political cost of accelerating coal phase-out

Nacke

Vinichenko

Cherp

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

While macroeconomic models highlight rapid coal phase-out as an urgent climate mitigation measure, its socio-political feasibility is unclear. The negative impacts of coal phase-out for companies, workers and coal-dependent regions, and the unequal global distribution of the coal phase-out burden has triggered resistance and calls for just transitions. Here, we construct a database of domestic and international just transition policies and partnerships that compensate affected actors of coal phase-outs. By comparing coal phase-out in countries which have compensation plans with those that don’t, we show that compensation policies are essential to realizing premature retirement of coal. The cost we estimate associated with these policies clarifies the financial cost of making coal phase-out politically feasible. We find that compensation costs are proportional to avoided emissions resulting from coal phase-out and are generally consistent with recent carbon prices. We find that the cost of implementing similar compensation policies in case of 1.5°C -consistent coal phase-out for China and India is 17 times higher than all existing compensation, and roughly comparable to global Official Development Assistance in 2021. We show that in the case of coal phase-out, political will and social acceptance have a tangible economic component which should be factored in to assessing the feasibility of achieving climate targets.

show abstract

Socio-political feasibility of coal power phase-out and its role in mitigation pathways

Cited by 46 publications

References 42 publications

Towards integration? Considering social aspects with large-scale computational models for nature-based solutions

Towards integration? Considering social aspects with large-scale computational models for nature-based solutions

The feasibility of climate action: Bridging the inside and the outside view through feasibility spaces

Socio-political cost of accelerating coal phase-out

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About