Socio-geographic disparity in cardiorespiratory mortality burden attributable to ambient temperature in the United States

Zhang, Yunquan; Xiang, Qianqian; Yan, Yu; Zhan, Zhi-Ying; Hu, Kejia; Ding, Zan

doi:10.1007/s11356-018-3653-z

Cited by 42 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…We further found that cold-related YLL rates were higher in LDRs compared with HDRs, which was consistent with previous findings that socioeconomic factors have a modifying effect on the temperature-mortality count relationship [10,31]. However, the heat-related YLL rates were similar between HDRs and LDRs, which implies that development level does not play an important role in heat-related YLL rates.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…Hajat et al found that lower economic status [e.g., gross domestic product (GDP)] associated with higher heat risk [ 14 , 15 ]. Low average education also have been found worsen cold- and heat-related mortality burden [ 10 ]. Possible reasons for this finding were the potential differences in social environment and living conditions among different development regions such as population structure and density, lifestyle and availability to adequate health care services or home air conditioners.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This result may partially be explained by urban heat-island (UHI) effect, which has been found to have an important impact on heat-related mortality [ 32 ]. Several previous studies reported that HDRs characterized by more urbanized areas and higher population densities were more vulnerable to heat [ 5 , 10 ]. Though populations in HDRs might not be vulnerable to high temperature because of better adaption capacity [ 11 , 33 ], the presence of UHI effect in HDRs may offset that capacity.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies have reported that socioeconomic factors independently affected the association of temperature with mortality counts [ 5 , 9 , 10 ]. For instance, several studies reported that temperature-mortality relationships had difference between urban and rural areas [ 11 – 13 ], gross domestic product (GDP) and average educational years also could explain spatial heterogeneity of temperature-related effects [ 10 , 14 , 15 ]. Based on these, we hypothesize that low socioeconomic development regions (LDRs) maybe more vulnerable to ambient temperature than high development regions (HDRs), which has not been examined in the previous studies at national level.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparison of life loss per death attributable to ambient temperature among various development regions: a nationwide study in 364 locations in China

et al. 2020

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Background Several studies have investigated the associations between ambient temperature and years of life lost (YLLs), but few focused on the difference of life loss attributable to temperature among different socioeconomic development levels. Objectives We investigated the disparity in temperature-YLL rate relationships and life loss per death attributable to nonoptimal temperature in regions with various development levels. Methods Three hundred sixty-four Chinese counties or districts were classified into 92 high-development regions (HDRs) and 272 low-development regions (LDRs) according to socioeconomic factors of each location using K-means clustering approach. We used distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) and multivariate meta-analysis to estimate the temperature-YLL rate relationships. We calculated attributable fraction (AF) of YLL and temperature-related average life loss per death to compare mortality burden of temperature between HDRs and LDRs. Stratified analyses were conducted by region, age, sex and cause of death. Results We found that non-optimal temperatures increased YLL rates in both HDRs and LDRs, but all subgroups in LDRs were more vulnerable. The disparity of cold effects between HDRs and LDRs was significant, while the difference in heat effect was insignificant. The overall AF of non-optimal temperature in LDRs [AF = 12.2, 95% empirical confidence interval (eCI):11.0–13.5%] was higher than that in HDRs (AF = 8.9, 95% eCI: 8.3–9.5%). Subgroups analyses found that most groups in LDRs had greater AFs than that in HDRs. The average life loss per death due to non-optimal temperature in LDRs (1.91 years, 95% eCI: 1.72–2.10) was also higher than that in HDRs (1.32 years, 95% eCI: 1.23–1.41). Most of AFs and life loss per death were caused by moderate cold in both HDRs and LDRs. Conclusions Mortality burden caused by temperature was more significant in LDRs than that in HDRs, which means that more attention should be paid to vulnerable populations in LDRs in planning adaptive strategies.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Comparison of life loss per death attributable to ambient temperature among various development regions: a nationwide study in 364 locations in China

et al. 2020

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“…We used two-stage time series analysis to predict the prefecture-specific non-linear lag impact of temperature on OHCA, as described previously (Gasparrini et al, 2016;Onozuka and Hagihara, 2017c;Zhang et al, 2019;Zhang et al, 2017). Briefly, first, we investigated the association between temperature and OHCA in individual prefectures using a time-series quasi-Poisson regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model, adjusting for season, long-term trends, and day of the week.…”

Section: Estimation Of Exposure-response Relationshipsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future projections of temperature-related excess out-of-hospital cardiac arrest under climate change scenarios in Japan

Onozuka

Gasparrini

Sera

et al. 2019

Science of The Total Environment

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Background: Recent studies have reported associations between global climate change and mortality. However, future projections of temperature-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) have not been thoroughly evaluated. Thus, we aimed to project temperature-related morbidity for OHCA concomitant with climate change. Methods: We collected national registry data on all OHCA cases reported in 2005-2015 from all 47 Japanese prefectures. We used a two-stage time series analysis to estimate temperature-OHCA relationships. Time series of current and future daily mean temperature variations were constructed according to four climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using five general circulation models. We projected excess morbidity for heat and cold and the net change in 1990-2099 for each climate change scenario using the assumption of no adaptation or population changes. Results: During the study period, 739,717 OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin were reported. Net decreases in temperature-related excess morbidity were observed under higher emission scenarios. The net change in 2090-2099 compared with 2010-2019 was-0.8% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]:-1.9, 0.1) for a mild emission scenario (RCP2.6),-2.6% (95% eCI:-4.4,-0.8) for a stabilization scenario (RCP4.5),-3.4% (95% eCI:-5.7,-1.0) for a stabilization scenario (RCP6.0), and-4.2% (95% eCI:-8.3,-0.1) for an extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5). Conclusions: Our study indicates that Japan is projected to experience a substantial net reduction in OHCAs in higher-emission scenarios. The decrease in risk is limited to a specific morbidity cause, and a broader assessment within climate change scenarios should consider other direct and indirect impacts.

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An Education Imperative: Integrating Climate Change Into the Emergency Medicine Curriculum

Moretti

2020

AEM Education and Training

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Socio-geographic disparity in cardiorespiratory mortality burden attributable to ambient temperature in the United States

Cited by 42 publications

References 73 publications

Comparison of life loss per death attributable to ambient temperature among various development regions: a nationwide study in 364 locations in China

Comparison of life loss per death attributable to ambient temperature among various development regions: a nationwide study in 364 locations in China

Future projections of temperature-related excess out-of-hospital cardiac arrest under climate change scenarios in Japan

An Education Imperative: Integrating Climate Change Into the Emergency Medicine Curriculum

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