Socio-economic consequences of the first and second waves of the pandemic in Russian regions

Pobedin, Alexander A.; Balynskaya, Natalya Rinatovna; Williams, Dina

doi:10.15826/recon.2021.7.3.013

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Its economy was characterized by sectoral and spatial diversity (Akhunov, 2021). In the recent years, however, the extractive industries have come to play a more dominant role in the economy, the country still recovering from the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic (Pobedin, 2021). Being embedded into the world economic system, Russia is also reliant on imported technologies, materials and spare parts (Aalto, 2016).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconsidering contemporary classifications of sanctions in the light of the Russia sanctions regime

Pobedin¹

2022

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Relevance In 2022, Russia has been facing unprecedented sanctions pressure, which has created a need to reconsider the established classifications of sanctions. As the new challenges arise, one has to deploy not only the current analytical resources but rely on the integrated conceptualization of earlier cases. Research objective. The study aims to describe and test methodology for analysis of sanctions regimes by using the current data on the sanctions against Russia. Data and method. The study relies on the methods of case study and statistical analysis and uses the data provided by Rosstat, Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Castellum.AI, UNCTAD. Results. The study proposes a base model of sanctions which combines two dimensions – the areas of foreign economic activity impacted by the restrictions and the factors that determine the sanctions' influence on the target country. It is shown how the proposed model can be adjusted for the analysis of the Russia sanctions regime. Conclusions. The sanctions put considerable pressure on Russia's economy because by the nature of their impact and scope they far exceed the scale of the restrictions that were previously applied to other countries. To withstand the sanctions pressure, a serious revision and reorganization of the country's foreign trade structure and domestic economic policy is necessary.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconsidering contemporary classifications of sanctions in the light of the Russia sanctions regime

Pobedin¹

2022

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“…It is more likely, however, that the very option of federal assistance in the regional debt policy in reality brings instability to the formal rules and shows the low level of autonomy of regional authorities (Klimanov V., Kazakova S., & Mikhaylova A., 2020). In the short term, it might be beneficial both for the borrower and the lender; in the long term, however, increased uncertainty reduces the efficiency of resource allocation as indicated by the abundant literature on soft budget constraints (Sinelnikov-Murylev S. et al, 2006;Pettersson-Lidbom, Dahlberg, 2003). Such a system is characterized by ineffective budgetary expenditures and reduced incentives to mobilize regional budget revenues.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of institutions on regional credit ratings in Russia

Mikhaylova

Timushev

2022

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Relevance. Institutions of a fiscal system play a significant role in regional credit ratings. This is reflected in the low creditworthiness of Russian regions from the international perspective. Research objective. The paper discusses the role of the institutional factors in the credit ratings assigned to Russian regions by Russian and international agencies. Data and Methods. The study analyzes the rating methodology adopted by Russian and international credit rating agencies and tests the presence of the institutional factors by conducting a formal regression analysis based on the data from the budgetary systems of Russia and the United States. Results. We demonstrate that international agencies value institutional factors, while Russian agencies use formal quantitative indicators. By applying comparative regression analysis to the economic and fiscal indicators of Russian regions and U.S. states, we found that The Big Three (Fitch Ratings, S&P Global Ratings and Moody's Investors Service) rate Russian regions lower than U.S. states, although the formal indicators between the two fiscal systems at the regional level do not differ as much. Conclusions. We conclude that the lower creditworthiness of Russian regions in the international perspective reflects the weakness of the institutions in the Russian budgetary system. Practically, the assessment of regional creditworthiness in Russia by the international agencies highlights the areas of intergovernmental fiscal relations that need improvement, most notably the insufficient tax and spending autonomy of local and regional governments.

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“…Various studies focused on predicting the impact of external factors on security and resilience of regional socio-economic systems; in 2020, particular attention was paid to assessing the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic (Pobedin, Balynskaya & Williams, 2021;Romanova & Ponomareva, 2021;Turgel & Usoltseva, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differentiated approach to the diagnostics of economic security and resilience of Russian regions (case of the Volga federal district)

Karanina¹,

Karaulov²

2023

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Relevance. Given the volatile global economy, unfriendly policy towards Russia and other external challenges, it is necessary to improve tools for predicting threats and risks to regional economic security and resilience. To this end, individual projections and indicators, as well as complex models should be examined. Research objective. The study aims to develop a new differentiated approach to diagnostics of indicators (projections) of economic security and resilience at the regional level, which can help visualize and evaluate threats to economic meso-systems. Data and Methods. Comparative and indicative approaches, ranking, piecewise linear approximation (scaling) and correlation analysis were used in the study. Results. As a result, the study presents the author's system of indicators of economic security and risks to the regional economy based on a differentiated approach. 36 indicators were grouped into 4 projections – general economic, social, technological and financial – and divided into sub-projections. In order to provide adequate and comparable estimates in the regional and temporal context, various methodological principles were used: application of relative indicators; assessment of cost indicators of regional development using the number of fixed market baskets (FMB) of the region (ratio of the regional cost indicator and the cost of a fixed market basket). Such approach allowed us to evaluate regional economic security in dynamics. The diagnostics of resilience of regional economic systems was performed in the context of individual projections by comparing crisis and relatively stable periods. Conclusions. The methodology was tested using data from regions of the Volga Federal District. The study revealed specific projections, sub-projections and indicators affected by threats, as well as demonstrated the ability of regions of the Volga Federal District to face the crisis and, in particular, resist sanctions.

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Socio-economic consequences of the first and second waves of the pandemic in Russian regions

Cited by 3 publications

References 9 publications

Reconsidering contemporary classifications of sanctions in the light of the Russia sanctions regime

Reconsidering contemporary classifications of sanctions in the light of the Russia sanctions regime

The impact of institutions on regional credit ratings in Russia

Differentiated approach to the diagnostics of economic security and resilience of Russian regions (case of the Volga federal district)

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