Societal systems – Complex or worse?

Abstract

The basic observation that we explore in this paper is simple but, we argue, rich in consequences: societal systems combine two qualities that are commonly referred to as complexity and complicatedness. We address the problem that societal systems remain recalcitrant despite the development of powerful approaches for dealing with both of these qualities. The root of this problem we identify to be that the combination between complexity and complicatedness is emergent; i.e. fundamentally and irreducibly different from either quality in isolation. This means that neither class of such approaches can be expected to work well on their own. But it also means that the obvious strategy of combining theory for complexity and complicatedness may be much more challenging than envisioned. In short, systems where complexity and complicatedness is mixed ought to be treated as a distinct class of systems. Noting a connection to what has long been called "wicked problems" we hereby outline such a class of systems that we call "wicked systems". We introduce a simple model and heuristic and discuss some implications for theorizing and modeling.

Ten challenges for computer models in transitions research: Commentary on Holtz et al.

“…system dynamics models, Integrated Assessment Models) may be good in addressing complicated, but not complex systems (Figure 2). Andersson et al (2014) thus conclude that formal modelling approaches have intrinsic limitations for analysing societal transitions. In fact, they suggest that 'narrative theories' are more suited for analysing such transitions, because they can "handle a number of key characteristics of wicked systems such as their heterogeneity, their contingency and their multilevel nature" (p. 154).…”

“…The quotes above suggest the rich narrative complexity of process-oriented styles of explanation, which seems appropriate for topics that are complex and complicated, as suggested by Andersson et al (2014). Yet is important to note that some forms of modelling-particularly the agent-based and system dynamics approaches that are well-represented among transition modellers-do come closer to a processual form of explanation, and are poorly represented by traditional views of 'variance' approaches (Langley 2007;Papachristos & Amenides 2016;Van de Ven and Poole 2005).…”

“…Last, but not least, models face difficulties in addressing 'wicked systems' (Andersson et al 2014) that are characterized by both complicatedness (large number of interacting 'components') and complexity (where interactions may lead to 'emergence' and new kinds of patterned behaviour). Andersson et al (2014) suggest that societies and eco-systems score high on both dimensions (Figure 1). They further suggest that complexity science (and associated models such as Agent Based Modelling) may be good in addressing complex, but not complicated systems (e.g.…”

“…Similarly, Byrne and Callaghan (2013) distinguish between 'simple complexity', which understands collective outcomes as the emergent product of interactions between simple agents following prescribed decision rules, and 'complex complexity', which understand processes as recursive interactions between pre-existing structures and potentially creative actors, mediated by causal mechanisms (see also Andersson et al, 2014, discussed above). They associate the former with agent-based models, which offer an improved understanding of endogenous social processes compared to standard variance models.…”

Emergence of human resilience in coastal ecosystems under environmental change

“…To complement the quantitative measure of resilience in Data analysis, we attempt to explain resilience through a lens of complexity concepts, particularly "emergence" and "downward causation" drawing on Sawyer (2002Sawyer ( , 2003Sawyer ( , 2012, Bruner (1991), Tsoukas and Hatch (2001), Browning and Boudès (2005), and Andersson et al (2014). These authors have critically used narrative inquiry as a tool for explaining the nuances of emergence in diverse social contexts, as in theater groups or social organizations.…”