Societal Risk as an Input to Risk Assessment

Abstract

Societal risk has been investigated in the United Kingdom by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) (2), the Netherlands (1), and most recently Canada (3). All methodologies focus on the high consequences of a significant event with a low probability of occurrence. Enbridge Pipelines Inc. uses various techniques to assess risk of mainline pipe and facilities. An index based risk model has been used for both mainline and facility risk assessment to provide relative risk values. These models have proven to be a useful means of risk evaluation. However, there are certain facilities or segments of pipe that have been identified by operating personnel as sensitive areas for reasons other than those defined for high consequence areas under 49CFR195 for liquid operations and 49CFR192 for gas operations regulated by the United States Department of Transportation. This paper proposes a method of identifying and quantifying these higher sensitive areas that could be applied to the any organization in the Oil and Gas Industry by incorporating societal risk into existing risk methodologies. For the purposes of this paper, societal risk is defined as the presence of a sensitive area from a social viewpoint with the potential for enhanced risk control or negative public reaction in the event of a significant incident at a specified location. Societal risk is approached in this paper as a multiplier to the total risk score obtained from existing risk assessment techniques. This multiplier can be applied to risk models, quantitative risk evaluations or other numerical based risk methodologies. This paper discusses the development of a societal risk factor, including a definition and scope for societal risk, and application of this risk multiplier to existing risk assessment techniques. Risk management strategies that may result from the use of a societal risk factor are also included.