Socialized with "old cleavages" or "new dimensions": An Age-Period-Cohort analysis on electoral support in Western European multiparty systems (1949–2021)

Mitteregger, Reto

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102744

“…Another study found no evidence that newer generations are less likely to vote for traditionally dominant parties in Ireland (Quinlan, 2015). Taking a slightly different approach, a cross-country study on 10 Western European multi-party systems examined generational differences in the relative electoral support for old cleavage parties compared to new challengers within the left and right bloc (Mitteregger, 2024). This study found that more recent cohorts are more likely to choose green parties over social democratic parties or far-right parties over Christian democratic and conservative parties.…”

Section: Social Democratic Christian Democratic and Conservative Part...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Electoral change through generational replacement: An age-period-cohort analysis of vote choice across 21 countries between 1948 and 2021

Rekker

2024

Front. Polit. Sci.

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People’s generation may have become one of the core predictors of their vote choice. This study examines this hypothesis across 21 Western established democracies between 1948 and 2021. An age-period-cohort analysis on 258 national election surveys (N = 462.084) reveals that the most recent generations are much less likely to vote for the major right-wing party in two-party systems. In multi-party systems, the gradual decline of Christian democratic parties has been largely driven by the generational replacement of pre-WW2 cohorts. Social democratic and conservative parties may face a challenge in future decades because their support is particularly low among the most recent generations whereas liberal, socialist, and particularly green parties stand to gain from generational replacement. Far-right parties have been least popular among voters who came of age during the 1930s and 1940s. A small life-cycle effect points out that people over the age of 65 vote slightly more conservative.

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“…Another study found no evidence that newer generations are less likely to vote for traditionally dominant parties in Ireland (Quinlan, 2015). Taking a slightly different approach, a cross-country study on 10 Western European multi-party systems examined generational differences in the relative electoral support for old cleavage parties compared to new challengers within the left and right bloc (Mitteregger, 2024). This study found that more recent cohorts are more likely to choose green parties over social democratic parties or far-right parties over Christian democratic and conservative parties.…”

Section: Social Democratic Christian Democratic and Conservative Part...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Table_2.docx

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“…Another study found no evidence that newer generations are less likely to vote for traditionally dominant parties in Ireland (Quinlan, 2015). Taking a slightly different approach, a cross-country study on 10 Western European multi-party systems examined generational differences in the relative electoral support for old cleavage parties compared to new challengers within the left and right bloc (Mitteregger, 2024). This study found that more recent cohorts are more likely to choose green parties over social democratic parties or far-right parties over Christian democratic and conservative parties.…”

Section: Social Democratic Christian Democratic and Conservative Part...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Socialized with "old cleavages" or "new dimensions": An Age-Period-Cohort analysis on electoral support in Western European multiparty systems (1949–2021)

Cited by 4 publications

References 78 publications

Electoral change through generational replacement: An age-period-cohort analysis of vote choice across 21 countries between 1948 and 2021

Electoral change through generational replacement: An age-period-cohort analysis of vote choice across 21 countries between 1948 and 2021

Table_2.docx

Table_4.docx

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