Social Ties, Migration, and Political Preferences

Abstract

Why have economically declining regions turned toward right-wing parties? To explain this puzzling phenomenon, we develop a theory linking internal migration, localized social institutions (e.g., family and friend networks), and voters’ preferences for social insurance. We start with the observation that social ties provide insurance against adverse life events, such as job loss, and highlight two implications. First, those with strong social networks prefer lower spending on social insurance, because they have access to informal insurance that acts as a substitute for public programs. Second, social ties discourage people from moving, even when better economic opportunities are available in other regions. Combining these mechanisms, we argue that the effect of economic shocks on a region’s politics depends on the strength of social ties. Regions with dense social ties have muted migratory responses to negative shocks relative to regions with weaker ties. Further, those who remain in declining regions are more conservative than those who migrate — resulting in an electorate with lower demand for social insurance. Macro-level analysis of American election results, import shocks, and migration data provide empirical support for the theory’s predictions. An original survey corroborates the micro-level mechanisms. The results have important implications for understanding right-wing populist support in economically declining regions in the U.S. and other post-industrial countries.

What Explains Educational Realignment? An Issue Voting Framework for Analyzing Electoral Coalitions

“…College-educated voters have become more liberal on economic issues, aligning their economic preferences with their cultural preferences. This trend is inconsistent with standard models of redistribution (Meltzer and Richard, 1983), but is consistent with other political economy arguments focusing on insurance motivations for public spending (Moene and Wallerstein, 2001), a desire to avoid negative externalities associated with inequality (Rueda and Stegmueller, 2016), and the interplay between informal social insti-tutions and economic migration (Marble and Lim, 2023). It is also consistent with a smaller public opinion literature documenting liberal economic views among the economically well-off (Gilens and Thal, 2017;Broockman, Ferenstein and Malhotra, 2019).…”