Social structure of Ukrainian society under the influence of full-scale war: conceptual and empirical research

Abstract

This research is devoted to analyzing the changes that took place in the social-group structure of Ukrainian society during a year and a half of full-scale war. In order to realize this goal, firstly, the author considers the experience and conceptual foundations of the study of the relationship between war and social structure in Western and Ukrainian science and proposes a concept of the impact of total war on the social structure of a society that resists external aggression. Secondly, several preconditions of social-group dynamics were clarified — both destructive (due to which Ukraine quickly acquired characteristic features of the social structure during the martial law), and constructive (which contributed to the reproduction of pre-war social positions of citizens and a high degree of stability of the social system in general). Thirdly, the dynamics of the distribution of social groups and classes was analyzed every six months of the war based on various open official sources and the data of sociological surveys (in particular, the project “Social Inequality: Wartime Monitoring”, which was initiated by the researchers of the Department of Social Structures of the Institute of Sociology, NAS of Ukraine). The author proves that during the year and a half of the full-scale war, significant (both objective and subjective) socio-structural changes took place among the economically active population, though not linear ones, but with certain fluctuations (a rapid and significant transformation in the first six months and a movement towards gradual recovery over the next year). In particular, a significant (three-fold) increase in two groups (members of the armed forces and the unemployed), which were outside economic activity and accounted for almost a third of the working-age population in September 2022, and a quarter — a year later. The most noticeable changes among the employed population were the reduction in the number and restructuring of the working class and the class of owners, including the oligarchs. Fourthly, the author makes a forecast of further social-group dynamics under favorable and unfavorable developments: how will the quantitative distribution and internal structure of the main classes and groups change, as well as the social structure of the country in general.