Social Security's Treatment of Postwar Americans

Caldwell, Steven; Favreault, Melissa M.; Gantman, Alla; Gokhale, Jagadeesh; Johnson, Thomas; Kotlikoff, Laurence J.

doi:10.3386/w6603

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…As discussed in section 5.2.6, this discount rate is supposed to reflect the alternative rate of return available to savers. Most studies of Social Security use a rate like our 2 percent, but Caldwell et al (1999) and others argue that the rate should be higher. If so, results might more closely resemble the results with a 4 percent discount rate in figure 5.2.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Finally, Caldwell et al (1999) use a large microsimulation model to construct lifetime earnings for many heterogeneous individuals. This model starts with the 1960 Census Public-Use Microdata Sample and uses estimated transition probabilities to "grow" the sample in one-year intervals.…”

Section: Overview Of Existing Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…use 2 percent,Hurd and Shoven (1985) use 3 percent,Boskin et al (1987) use 3 percent,Duggan, Gillingham, and Greenlees (1993) use 1.2 percent, use 2 percent, andGramlich (1996) uses 2.3 percent. In contrast,Caldwell et al (1999) use 3, 5, or 7 percent.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Long-Run Effects of Social Security Reform Proposals on Lifetime Progressivity

Coronado¹,

Fullerton²,

Glass³

2002

The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform

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This paper uses a lifetime framework to address questions about the progressivity of social security and proposed reforms. We use a large sample of diverse individuals from the PSID to calculate lifetime income, to classify individuals into income quintiles, and then to calculate the present value of taxes minus benefits for each person in each group. In our basic calculations, the current system is slightly progressive, overall, on a lifetime basis. Social Security would become slightly more progressive in one of the reform plans, and it would become slightly regressive in each of the other plans. The pattern of progressivity is affected by alternative assumptions, but it is

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Section: Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Overview Of Existing Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

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Long-Run Effects of Social Security Reform Proposals on Lifetime Progressivity

Coronado¹,

Fullerton²,

Glass³

2002

The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform

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“…Prospective research to date is based on large‐scale microsimulation models. The Cornell Microsimulation Model (CORSIM) is a high‐profile example, the foundation of which is a representative sample of Americans from the 1960 U.S. Census (Caldwell et al ). The simulation program grows the 1960 sample demographically and economically in one‐year intervals through the year 2100 .…”

Section: Background and Motivationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Microsimulation projections of Social Security redistribution are in disagreement with regard to changes in progressivity over time. Studies using CBOLT (Congressional Budget Office ) and an earlier version of MINT (Smith, Toder, and Iams ) indicate an increasingly progressive system, whereas studies using the current version of MINT (Biggs, Sarney, and Tamborini ), CORSIM (Caldwell et al ), and FEM (Goldman and Orszag ) show no progressivity trends, or regressive trends, for cohorts born after the 1940s. Thus, we contribute to an already mixed literature.…”

Section: Background and Motivationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Differential Income Replacement and Mortality on U.S. Social Security Redistribution

Tan

Koedel

2019

Southern Economic Journal

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We study redistribution via the U.S. Social Security retirement system for cohorts of men born during the second half of the 20th century. Our focus is on redistribution across race and education groups. The cohorts we study are younger than cohorts studied in previous, similar research and thus more exposed to recent increases in earnings inequality. All else equal, this should increase the degree of progressivity of Social Security redistribution due to the structure of the benefit formula. However, we find that redistribution is only modestly progressive for individuals born as late as 1980. Differential mortality rates across race and education groups are the primary explanation. While Black–White mortality gaps have narrowed some in recent years, they remain large and dull progressivity. Mortality gaps by education level are also large and unlike the gaps by race, they are widening, which puts additional regressive pressure on Social Security redistribution.

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