Social Mobility in a High-Inequality Regime

Abstract

Are opportunities to get ahead growing more unequal? Using data from the General Social Survey (GSS), it is possible to provide evidence on this question, evidence that is suggestive but must be carefully interpreted because the samples are relatively small. The GSS data reveal an increase in class reproduction among young and middle-age adults that is driven by the growing advantage of the professional-managerial class relative to all other classes. This trend is largely consistent with our new “top-income hypothesis” that posits that rising income inequality registers its effects on social mobility almost exclusively in the divide between the professional-managerial class and all other classes. We develop a two-factor model in which the foregoing effects of the inequality takeoff are set against the countervailing effects of the expansion of mass education. As the model implies, the trend in intergenerational association takes on a convex shape in the younger age groups, with the change appearing to accelerate in the most recent decade. These results suggest that the takeoff in income inequality may account in part for the decline in mobility.

How Has Educational Expansion Shaped Social Mobility Trends in the United States?

“…The uptick in the OD association for the youngest cohort can be interpreted as a tentative sign of a recent decline in fluidity (it is also more pronounced, though still not statistically significant, when we impose a lower age limit of 35 instead of 30; available from the authors). In particular, we point out that this suggestive evidence coincides with the findings by Mitnik et al (2013), despite being based on a much different analytic approach. 8 Second, we observe overall stability in the association between class origin and education ( θ OE ).…”

“…521-523). Another recent contribution by Mitnik and colleagues (2013) analyzes period changes in social class fluidity and finds some evidence for an increase in the intergenerational association within the managerial/professional class.…”

“…After a paucity of research on U.S. class mobility trends for about a quarter century, we have seen a recent resurgence of work in this area (e.g., Beller and Hout 2006a, Beller 2009, Mitnik et al 2013, Long and Ferrie 2013). These renewed attempts at describing the broader historical patterns of progress towards an open society come at an interesting time – on the heels of the most significant economic downturn since the Great Depression (Grusky et al 2011, Danziger 2013), when worries about decreasing levels of opportunity in the U.S. are widespread (e.g.…”

Rebuilding Walls: Market Transition and Social Mobility in the Post-Socialist Societies of Europe

“…Where exceptions to this new consensus pattern are found, the evidence is in favor of stability over time, not decreasing fluidity. Even in the United States, where a recent resurgence of mobility research has been focused on the search for evidence of decreasing mobility in a highly unequal society, an overall secular decline in fluidity is yet to be detected (Chetty et al 2014; although see also Mitnik, Cumberworth, and Grusky 2016) The results presented here reveal that-when attention turns to marketizing countries-there is indeed a strong secular trend toward declining fluidity. Although countries with established market economies may be experiencing increasing fluidity, evidence of declining fluidity is to be found in the nascent market societies of central and eastern Europe.…”

The Political Sources of Social Solidarity

“…In such instances, however, where beliefs and institutions are incongruent, levels of support for redistribution may be less stable. There are some indications, for instance, that the precondition for high rates of social mobility may be a generous set of redistributive social programs (Mitnik, Cumberworth, and Grusky 2013). Thus, beliefs about social mobility in the U.S. may be sustaining policies that are gradually undermining the material or institutional basis for such beliefs.…”