Social Influences and Aggregated Immigration Dynamics: The Case of Spain 1999–2009

Abstract

This research aims at broadening the applicability and scope of network-based explanations of international migration to include explanations of aggregated immigration dynamics for multiple immigrant collectives. Using a unique dataset that contains data on approximately 4.5 million international immigration events from 180 different origin countries in Spain between 1999 and 2009, my analysis shows conclusively that information about changes in the supply of immigrant social capital between past and potential immigrants explains the variation in local immigration rates in the destination society. It also show that incorporating information about such social network influences is very informative when the goal is to explain (1) temporal variation in intra-collective international immigration flows across different locations in the destination, (2) temporal variation in inter-collective international immigration flows within a specific location in the destination, (3) intra-collective differences in international immigration across locations in the destination, and finally (4) intercollective differences in local international immigration within the same geographical location in the destination.

An analysis of a large dataset on immigrant integration in Spain. The Statistical Mechanics perspective on Social Action

“…The analysis is based on the information contained in the Statistics over residential variation in Spanish municipalities, the so called Estadistica de variaciones residenciales (EVR): for each municipality, the data contain information about (internal) migration to and from other Spanish municipalities, as well as all international migration events and statistics on vital events (births and deaths), as elaborated by Spain's National Statistical Agency (INE). A unique feature of the Spanish data is that they also include so-called undocumented immigrants, that is, immigrants who lack a residence permit 34 . Undocumented immigrants are usually not included in official statistical sources.…”

Forecasting the integration of immigrants

“…We then estimate the local immigrant densities for different points in time (quarterly) based on the information contained in the Statistics over residential variation in Spanish municipalities, the so called Estadistica de variaciones residenciales (EVR) as elaborated by Spain's National Statistical Agency (INE). An exceptional feature of the Spanish data is that they also include so-called undocumented immigrants, that is, immigrants who lack a residence permit (see Sandell 2012).…”

A stochastic approach for quantifying immigrant integration: the Spanish test case

“…The former provides detailed data on labor contracts, and the latter provides detailed data on spouses and parents of newborns. Information on the municipalities' immigration density are drawn from the Municipal population registers 8 . A unique feature of the Spanish data is that data sources include so-called 'undocumented immigrants', that is, immigrants who lack a residence permit.…”

“…The residence municipality is only disclosed if the population is larger than 10000. 8 More precisely, we use the size of the immigrant population and the native population in each municipality as reported in the 2001 Census as our baseline. Thereafter, based on the information contained in the 'Statistics over residential variation in Spanish municipalities' and statistics on vital events (births and deaths) as elaborated by Spainʼs 'National Statistical Agency' (INE), we estimate local immigrant densities for different points in time between 1999 and 2010.…”

“…From a sociological perspective, the evolution of the quantifiers with respect to the density of immigrants is, in fact, a random process stochasticity which may depend on several exogenous factors driving immigration: fluctuations in the ratio between work demand and work request in the host country [2] or 'biases' resulting from (for example) push-pull factors [2] or different types of network-induced migration outcomes [6][7][8]. However our aim here is not to explain or disentangle these mechanisms, but rather to look at the evolution of quantifiers as a combined effect of a 'drift' in the presence of some 'noise' regardless of its source/origin.…”