Snow Avalanche Frequency Estimation (SAFE): 32 years of remote hazard monitoring in Afghanistan

Abstract

Abstract. Snow avalanches are the predominant hazards in winter in high elevation mountains. They cause damage to both humans and assets but cannot be accurately predicted. Until now, only local maps to estimate snow avalanche risk have been produced. Here we show how remote sensing can accurately inventory large avalanches every year at a basin scale using a 32-yr snow index derived from Landsat satellite archives. This Snow Avalanche Frequency Estimation (SAFE) built in an open-access Google Engine script maps snow hazard frequency and targets vulnerable areas in remote regions of Afghanistan, one of the most data-limited areas worldwide. SAFE correctly detected of the actual avalanches identified on Google Earth and in the field (Probability of Detection 0.77 and Positive Predictive Value 0.96). A total of 810,000 large avalanches occurred since 1990 within an area of 28,500 km2 with a mean frequency of 0.88 avalanches/km2yr−1, damaging villages and blocking roads and streams. Snow avalanche frequency did not significantly change with time, but a northeast shift of these hazards was evident. SAFE is the first robust model that can be used worldwide and is capable of filling data voids on snow avalanche impacts in inaccessible regions.

GIS-Based Spatial Modeling of Snow Avalanches Using Analytic Hierarchy Process. A Case Study of the Šar Mountains, Serbia

“…[7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23]. A large number of human casualties have been reported in Switzerland, Austria, Italy, Türkiye, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Canada [14,[24][25][26][27][28][29].…”

“…On the other hand, Bair et al [28] performed an analysis mainly related to the snow properties (with high potential to cause snow avalanches) in northwestern High Mountain Asia (regions in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Tajikistan) by using the numerical snow cover modeling. The work of Caiserman et al [29] provided snow avalanche frequency estimation by using 32 years of remote sensing data in Afghanistan. The obtained results indicated that a total of 810,000 large avalanches occurred since 1990 within an area of 28,500 km 2 with a mean frequency of 0.88 avalanches/km 2 yr −1 , damaging villages and blocking roads and streams.…”