Smoking Bans and Circulatory System Disease Mortality Reduction in Macao (China): Using GRA Models

Abstract

This study evaluates the association between smoking rates and mortality from circulatory system diseases (CSD) after implementing a series of smoking bans in Macao (China). (1) Background: Macao phased in strict total smoking bans since 2012. During the past decade, smoking rates among Macao women have dropped by half. CSD mortalities in Macao also show a declining trend. (2) Method: Grey relational analysis (GRA) models were adopted to rank the importance of some key factors, such as income per capita, physician density, and smoking rates. Additionally, regressions were performed with the bootstrapping method. (3) Results: Overall, smoking rate was ranked as the most important factor affecting CSD mortality among the Macao population. It consistently remains the primary factor among Macao’s female population. Each year, on average 5 CSD-caused deaths were avoided among every 100,000 women, equivalent to about 11.45% of the mean annual CSD mortality. (4) Conclusions: After the implementation of smoking bans in Macao, the decrease in smoking rate among women plays a primary role in the reduction in CSD mortality. To avoid excess CSD mortality due to smoking, Macao needs to continue to promote smoking cessation among the male population.