Small Theories and Large Risks—Is Risk Analysis Relevant for Epistemology?

Ćirković, Milan M.

doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01914.x

Cited by 13 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Second, detonation in the case of nuclear war pertains to anthropogenic risk, which accounts for the spectrum of small events that can escalate to the level of a global catastrophe [46] because the catastrophic effect of nuclear weapons on the world and humanity is immense. The fire effects of nuclear explosions will likely damage humans, the climate and ecosystems.…”

Section: Banning Nuclear Weapons For the Protection Of Human Securitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons: Towards Sustainable Human Security

Soeparna

2023

Journal of Human Security

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Using descriptive and analytical legal research, this study analyses the relationship between the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) and sustainable human security. It involves critically analysing the rules on the prohibition of nuclear weapons and what has been written and argued regarding human security and sustainable human security. The findings indicate that the TPNW consists of legal obligations for all state parties to abolish nuclear weapons as a prerequisite to permanent human security. It also comprises provisions for achieving sustainable human security. Therefore, the total ban on nuclear weapons is meant to protect human security and sustain it by eliminating the factors of insecurity of human beings due to the threat of using nuclear weapons.

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Section: Banning Nuclear Weapons For the Protection Of Human Securitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons: Towards Sustainable Human Security

Soeparna

2023

Journal of Human Security

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“…One interesting subset of rare events is the low probability, high consequence risk-for example, a pandemic caused by avian influenza virus research. Low-probability events, as well as improbable, but unrefuted, catastrophic theories (Cirković 2012), tend to get considerable attention in the media. One possibility is that the public merely overreacts to the 'social amplification of risk' (Kasperson et al 1988).…”

Section: Data For Rare Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Benefits of Research

2020

Dangerous Science Science: Policy and Risk Analysis for Scientists and Engineers

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Writing a book requires a substantial time commitment, and I would like to thank my family for their patience. It also requires resources, and I would like to thank Stony Brook University and the Department of Technology and Society in particular for its support. Thanks also goes out to David Tonjes for his helpful advice and Scott Ferson for his gracious support and instructive discussions regarding the nature of risk and the measurement of uncertainty. I must also express my deep gratitude to the late David Ferguson, instrumental in my academic career, who imparted kindness and wisdom in equal measure. Finally, I would like to thank Sheldon Reaven for our numerous conversations on the philosophy of science, science policy, and opera. The value of his insightful comments has been exceeded only by the value of his friendship. This book has also benefitted from the insightful peer review comments provided by Professor Frederic Emmanuel Bouder. Case Study: H5N1 Influenza Research Debate Media coverage of the latest scientific discoveries and technological innovations is usually enthusiastic. Long-standing questions are answered, productivity is increased, health is improved, and our standard of living is raised-all due to modern science and human ingenuity. However, sometimes the results of research can also inspire public fear and outrage. Let us consider a recent example. In September 2011, Dutch virologist Ron Fouchier announced at a conference in Malta that his research team had recently engineered a version of the H5N1 1 avian influenza virus that was highly transmissible between mammals. Shortly thereafter, virologist Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of Wisconsin presented results from a similar study. The subsequent media coverage scared the general public and set off demands for a review of how science research is assessed, funded, and managed. Why would these studies be so scary? The reason centers on the lethal potential of influenza and the H5N1 virus in particular. An influenza pandemic typically occurs when a flu virus substantially different from circulating viruses mutates to become easily transmissible between humans. The combination of 1 The formal naming convention for influenza viruses includes the antigenic type (A, B, or C); the originating host (e.g., swine); the geographical origin; year of identification; strain number; or for type A viruses, the specific subtypes of two surface proteins, hemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N) (e.g., H5N1) (Assaad et al. 1980). Given the complexity of formal names, popular shorthand names, such as Spanish flu, Swine flu, and H1N1 can potentially be referring to the same influenza virus. The World Health Organization has been working to improve shorthand names to make them less stigmatizing and more informative.

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“…It may be that as the cognizable probability becomes infinitesimally small, the number of cognizable scenarios approaches infinity. It may be difficult to judge which low‐probability theories are plausible (Cirkovic, ). Thus, careful assessment is needed of which uncommons risks warrant attention and action.…”

Section: The Tragedy Of Mismanagementmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Tragedy of the Uncommons: On the Politics of Apocalypse

Wiener

2016

Global Policy

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The 'tragedy of the commons' is a classic type of problem, involving multiple actors who face individual incentives to deplete shared resources and thereby impose harms on others. Such tragedies can be overcome if societies learn through experience to mobilize collective action. This article formulates a distinct type of problem: 'the tragedy of the uncommons', involving the misperception and mismanagement of rare catastrophic risks. Although the problem of rare and global catastrophic risk has been much discussed, its sources and solutions need to be better understood. Descriptively, this article identifies psychological heuristics and political forces that underlie neglect of rare catastrophic 'uncommons' risks, notably the unavailability heuristic, mass numbing, and underdeterrence. Normatively, the article argues that, for rare catastrophic risks, it is the inability to learn from experience, rather than uncertainty, that offers the best case for anticipatory precaution. The article suggests a twist on conventional debates: in contrast to salient experienced risks spurring greater public concern than expert concern, rare uncommons risks exhibit greater expert concern than public concern. Further, optimal precaution against uncommons risks requires careful analysis to avoid misplaced priorities and potentially catastrophic risk-risk trade-offs. The article offers new perspectives on expert vs public perceptions of risk; impact assessment and policy analysis; and precaution, policy learning and foresight. Policy Implications• As societies succeed in overcoming 'tragedies of the commons', they can and should pay increasing attention to 'tragedies of the uncommons'.

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Small Theories and Large Risks—Is Risk Analysis Relevant for Epistemology?

Cited by 13 publications

References 35 publications

Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons: Towards Sustainable Human Security

Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons: Towards Sustainable Human Security

Assessing the Benefits of Research

The Tragedy of the Uncommons: On the Politics of Apocalypse

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