Small states and strategic hedging: the United Arab Emirates’ policy towards Iran

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to unveil the main changes in the UAE’s policy towards Iran since its foundation in 1971. The UAE favored strategic hedging, extending its commercial and diplomatic relations with Iran, in addition to developing its military capabilities and maintaining military/security alliances with Saudi Arabia and the USA. However, the UAE started to reorient its policy towards Iran by adopting some sort of balancing strategy in the aftermath of the Arab Spring of 2011. This paper examines how and why the UAE had to change course and explores whether it would revert back to strategic hedging with Iran. Design/methodology/approach The study will be carried out based on a theoretical framework drawn from strategic hedging theory, a new structural theory in international relations, to examine the shifts in UAE policy towards Iran. Previous literature suggests that small states prefer hedging over balancing or bandwagoning. The authors also undertake a descriptive analysis and deploy a longitudinal within-case method to investigate changes in UAE policy towards Iran and identify the causal mechanisms behind these changes. That method allows investigating the impact of a particular event on a case by comparing the same case before and after that event occurred. Findings The main finding of this study is that the UAE hedging strategy towards Iran allowed maximizing the political and economic returns from the cooperation with Iran and mitigating the long-range national security risks without breaking up the consistent and beneficial ties with other regional and global powers. Hedging achieved the desired outcome, which is preventing direct military confrontation with Iran. Hard balancing, adopted by Abu Dhabi after the 2011 Arab Spring, has proved to have some negative effects, most importantly provoking Tehran. Some recent indicators suggest, though that the UAE may revert back to its long-established hedging policy towards Iran. Originality/value Strategic hedging is a new structural theory in international relation, although hedging behavior in states’ foreign policies is far from new. It is new enough, thus, not have been researched sufficiently, strategic hedging still needs theorizing and comparison. This paper highlights the importance of strategic hedging as the most appropriate strategy for small states. It provides an important contribution to the application of the theory to the case of UAE policy towards Iran. The paper also assesses the conventional wisdom that small states prefer hedging over balancing in the light of the changes in the UAE foreign policy since 2011.

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“…The relationship of the neighbouring UAE-Iran in the regional Middle East is full of tensions but without direct confrontation. Since founded in 1971, the UAE has leaned towards hedging strategy to gain benefits without imposing direct confrontation with Iran (El-Dessouki & Mansour, 2020). Hedging strategy is a rational option for the UAE as a small country with minimal forces when facing its neighbour, Iran (El-Dessouki & Mansour, 2020).…”

“…Since founded in 1971, the UAE has leaned towards hedging strategy to gain benefits without imposing direct confrontation with Iran (El-Dessouki & Mansour, 2020). Hedging strategy is a rational option for the UAE as a small country with minimal forces when facing its neighbour, Iran (El-Dessouki & Mansour, 2020). In other words, disparity in force has encouraged the UAE to impose hedging strategy against Iran.…”

“…In other words, disparity in force has encouraged the UAE to impose hedging strategy against Iran. However, as the Arab Spring was taking place in the Middle East in 2011, UAE put forward the hard balancing strategy that focused on external balancing by forming alliance with Saudi Arabia and the United States, as well as internal balancing by strengthening the UAE military capacity (El-Dessouki & Mansour, 2020).…”

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“…When discussing the UAE in strategic issues, they are striving to shape a "regional moderation agenda" in the face of threats from the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran, with concerns that the political victory of the Muslim Brotherhood and the nuclear agreement with Iranaccording to UAE's concern about Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)'s interpretation-could jeopardize regional stability with their partner countries, especially in the Middle East (El-Dessouki & Mansour, 2020). The UAE and its regional allies form an alliance against Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood, with the goal of creating an Arab-led regional order, restoring regional security, and combating extremism.…”