Small contribution of gold mines to the ongoing tuberculosis epidemic in South Africa: a modeling-based study

Chang, Stewart T.; Chihota, Violet; Fielding, Katherine; Grant, Alison D.; Houben, Rein M. G. J.; White, Richard G.; Churchyard, Gavin J.; Eckhoff, Philip A.; Wagner, Bradley G.

doi:10.1186/s12916-018-1037-3

Cited by 13 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…However, the impact of silica exposure on miners goes beyond the workforce. A modelling study of South African gold mining communities concluded that miners and members of mining communities contributed a disproportionately large share of new tuberculosis cases nationally in relation to their proportion of the population, although the main transmission impact was local [63].…”

Section: Overall Completeness and Applicability Of Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

The association between silica exposure, silicosis and tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

et al. 2021

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Background While the association between occupational inhalation of silica dust and pulmonary tuberculosis has been known for over a century, there has never been a published systematic review, particularly of experience in the current era of less severe silicosis and treatable tuberculosis. We undertook a systematic review of the evidence for the association between (1) silicosis and pulmonary tuberculosis, and (2) silica exposure and pulmonary tuberculosis controlling for silicosis, and their respective exposure-response gradients. Methods We searched PUBMED and EMBASE, and selected studies according to a priori inclusion criteria. We extracted, summarised and pooled the results of published case-control and cohort studies of silica exposure and/or silicosis and incident active tuberculosis. Study quality was assessed on the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Where meta-analysis was possible, effect estimates were pooled using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models. Otherwise narrative and graphic synthesis was undertaken. Confidence regarding overall effect estimates was assessed using the GRADE schema. Results Nine studies met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of eight studies of silicosis and tuberculosis yielded a pooled relative risk of 4.01 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.88, 5.58). Exposure-response gradients were strong with a low silicosis severity threshold for increased risk. Our GRADE assessment was high confidence in a strong association. Meta-analysis of five studies of silica exposure controlling for or excluding silicosis yielded a pooled relative risk of 1.92 (95% CI 1.36, 2.73). Exposure-response gradients were observable in individual studies but not finely stratified enough to infer an exposure threshold. Our GRADE assessment was low confidence in the estimated effect owing to inconsistency and use of proxies for silica exposure. Conclusions The evidence is robust for a strongly elevated risk of tuberculosis with radiological silicosis, with a low disease severity threshold. The effect estimate is more uncertain for silica exposure without radiological silicosis. Research is needed, particularly cohort studies measuring silica exposure in different settings, to characterise the effect more accurately as well as the silica exposure threshold that could be used to prevent excess tuberculosis risk.

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Section: Overall Completeness and Applicability Of Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

The association between silica exposure, silicosis and tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

et al. 2021

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“…88 Another modeling study in 2018 found that individual gold mine workers contribute approximately 1.6 times as many new infections compared to the general South African population. 89 However, while such disproportionate transmission was found on an individual level, the authors also found that the mining industry as a whole contributed only marginally to the overall TB epidemic in the country. Unfortunately, there is insufficient evidence to determine and quantify the contribution of former mine workers to the general TB epidemic.…”

Section: The Stabilization Of the Mining Workforcementioning

confidence: 94%

Those Who Don’t Return: Improving Efforts to Address Tuberculosis Among Former Miners in Southern Africa

Smith

Blom

2019

New Solut

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Despite increasing awareness regarding the role of oscillating migration in the mining industry as a major driving force in the spread of tuberculosis (TB) throughout southern Africa, very little work has focused on the historical and contextual factors which may contribute to former migrant miners’ present-day risk of TB. Most research regarding migration-related and occupational influences on TB has been done on current miners still employed by the mining industry. Through both a historical and contemporary lens, this paper explores and elucidates the need to address the TB epidemic among former migrant mine workers and provides considerations to improve current interventions among this critical population.

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“…EMOD [41] and OpenMalaria [42]) were used in the articles modelling malaria. In the articles modelling tuberculosis, the only tool reported was EMOD [43].…”

Section: Computational Aspects and The Use Of Platformsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Calibration of individual-based models to epidemiological data: A systematic review

et al. 2020

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Individual-based models (IBMs) informing public health policy should be calibrated to data and provide estimates of uncertainty. Two main components of model-calibration methods are the parameter-search strategy and the goodness-of-fit (GOF) measure; many options exist for each of these. This review provides an overview of calibration methods used in IBMs modelling infectious disease spread. We identified articles on PubMed employing simulation-based methods to calibrate IBMs informing public health policy in HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria epidemiology published between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2018. Articles were included if models stored individual-specific information, and calibration involved comparing model output to population-level targets. We extracted information on parameter-search strategies, GOF measures, and model validation. The PubMed search identified 653 candidate articles, of which 84 met the review criteria. Of the included articles, 40 (48%) combined a quantitative GOF measure with an algorithmic parameter-search strategyeither an optimisation algorithm (14/40) or a sampling algorithm (26/40). These 40 articles varied widely in their choices of parameter-search strategies and GOF measures. For the remaining 44 (52%) articles, the parameter-search strategy could either not be identified (32/44) or was described as an informal, non-reproducible method (12/44). Of these 44 articles, the majority (25/44) were unclear about the GOF measure used; of the rest, only five quantitatively evaluated GOF. Only a minority of the included articles, 14 (17%) provided a rationale for their choice of model-calibration method. Model validation was reported in 31 (37%) articles. Reporting on calibration methods is far from optimal in epidemiological modelling studies of HIV, malaria and TB transmission dynamics. The adoption of better documented, algorithmic calibration methods could improve both reproducibility and the quality of inference in model-based epidemiology. There is a need for research comparing the performance of calibration methods to inform decisions about the parameter-search strategies and GOF measures.

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Small contribution of gold mines to the ongoing tuberculosis epidemic in South Africa: a modeling-based study

Cited by 13 publications

References 42 publications

The association between silica exposure, silicosis and tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The association between silica exposure, silicosis and tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Those Who Don’t Return: Improving Efforts to Address Tuberculosis Among Former Miners in Southern Africa

Calibration of individual-based models to epidemiological data: A systematic review

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