2011
DOI: 10.1007/s12546-011-9053-6
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Small-area population forecasting in an urban setting: a spatial regression approach

Abstract: This study revisits a spatial regression approach for small-area population forecasting that considers not only direct drivers of local area population growth but also neighbour growth and neighbour characteristics. Previous research suggested that the approach does not outperform extrapolation projections, the currently most-often-used small-area population forecasting technique. We argue the reason is that population growth is affected by its influential factors differently in urban, suburban, and rural area… Show more

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Cited by 20 publications
(11 citation statements)
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“…This approach is an indirect estimation of the population of small areas based on linking models using census, administrative and other auxiliary data sources associated with the small areas (Rao 2008). In the methods, indirect drivers (Chi, Zhou, and Voss 2011) or symptomatic indicators (Howe 1999;Smith 2002) or co-variates (Chambers and Tzavidis 2006) that are related to population change are identified and used to estimate variation among the small areas (Tayman, Schafer, and Carter 1998;Swanson 2004;Chi 2009;.…”
Section: Regression Approachmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This approach is an indirect estimation of the population of small areas based on linking models using census, administrative and other auxiliary data sources associated with the small areas (Rao 2008). In the methods, indirect drivers (Chi, Zhou, and Voss 2011) or symptomatic indicators (Howe 1999;Smith 2002) or co-variates (Chambers and Tzavidis 2006) that are related to population change are identified and used to estimate variation among the small areas (Tayman, Schafer, and Carter 1998;Swanson 2004;Chi 2009;.…”
Section: Regression Approachmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…It can be affected by variables such as urban planning, physical characteristics, and distance from the downtown area as well as the socio-demographic composition of the area (Cameron & Poot, 2011;Chi, Zhou, & Voss, 2011;Murdock, Hamm, Voss, Fannin, & Pecotte, 1991). Furthermore, the implementation of urban planning in local demographic projections is important to avoiding a potential selffulfilling effect (i.e., when the urban plan is modified to integrate previous projection results) (Murdock et al, 1991).…”
Section: Challenges Of Small Area Population Projectionsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…A simple survey of JSTOR articles published in English between the 1990s and the first decade of the 2000s shows that the number of articles with the keyword ''spatial'' in the title or abstract increased 26 % for 128 sociology journals, 108 % for 36 population studies journals, 31 % for 173 economic journals and 38 % for 152 political science journals. Within sociology and demography, spatial modeling has been well advocated Wachter 2005) and used in empirical studies (Curtis et al 2012;Chi et al 2011;Voss et al 2006;Clark 2005;Plane et al 2005;Johnson et al 2005;Hammer et al 2004). Methodological articles stressing the importance of spatial components in estimating parameters or constructing new indexes can also be found in recent literature (Bhati 2005;Elvidge et al 2012;Reardon and O'Sullivan 2004;Savitz and Raudenbush 2009).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%