Small area population denominators for improved disease surveillance and response

Tatem, Andrew J.

doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100597

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…In practice, this could be best done using a joint modelling approach which is beyond the scope of our work. We did not obtain an official endorsement from the Nigerian government to use WorldPop data for producing the zero-dose estimates, although these data have been used widely in similar contexts [22, 43]. Also, by using the distribution of zero-dose children to assess the performance of vaccine delivery strategies, our study precludes scenarios where certain demand-side barriers to immunization cannot be overcome through effective and efficient immunization service delivery.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the distribution of zero-dose children to assess the performance of vaccine delivery strategies and their relationships with measles incidence in Nigeria

Utazi

Aheto

Wigley

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Geographically precise identification and targeting of populations at risk of vaccine-preventable diseases has gained renewed attention within the global health community over the last few years. District level estimates of vaccination coverage and corresponding zero-dose prevalence constitute a potentially useful evidence base to evaluate the performance of vaccination strategies. These estimates are also valuable for identifying missed communities, hence enabling targeted interventions and better resource allocation. Here, we fit Bayesian geostatistical models to map the routine coverage of the first doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (DTP1) and measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) and corresponding zero-dose estimates at 1x1 km resolution and the district level using geospatial data sets. We also map MCV1 coverage before and after the 2019 measles vaccination campaign in the northern states to further explore variations in routine vaccine coverage and to evaluate the effectiveness of both routine immunization (RI) and campaigns in reaching zero-dose children. Additionally, we map the spatial distributions of reported measles cases during 2018 to 2020 and explore their relationships with MCV zero-dose prevalence to highlight the public health implications of varying performance of vaccination strategies across the country. Our analysis revealed strong similarities between the spatial distributions of DTP and MCV zero dose prevalence, with districts with the highest prevalence concentrated mostly in the northwest and the northeast, but also in other areas such as Lagos state and the Federal Capital Territory. Although the 2019 campaign reduced MCV zero-dose prevalence substantially in the north, pockets of vulnerabilities remained in areas that had among the highest prevalence prior to the campaign. Importantly, we found strong correlations between measles case counts and MCV RI zero-dose estimates, which provides a strong indication that measles incidence in the country is mostly affected by RI coverage. Our analyses reveal an urgent and highly significant need to strengthen the country's RI program as a longer-term measure for disease control, whilst ensuring effective campaigns in the short term.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the distribution of zero-dose children to assess the performance of vaccine delivery strategies and their relationships with measles incidence in Nigeria

Utazi

Aheto

Wigley

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…Decision-making criteria regarding the spatial scale and zonation of areal units has a fundamental impact on the nature of geographic spatial analysis 1 – 7 . While this phenomenon has been acknowledged in the geographic literature for decades 1 – 6 , being cognizant of the implications in how underlying data is constructed matters for any field, with particularly useful examples noted for demographic 8 , health 9 , 10 , urban 11 , and ecological 12 applications. Considering that no rule set or agreed upon standards currently exist for areal aggregation in spatial analysis 1 , 2 , 4 , 5 , it is critical to determine the underlying rationale for a given spatial resolution in geographical analysis as the sensitivity of associated outcomes is tied directly to the decision-making criteria of model development and the underlying characteristics of the data 1 , 2 , 5 .…”

Section: Background and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

A simulated ‘sandbox’ for exploring the modifiable areal unit problem in aggregation and disaggregation

Nieves,

Gaughan,

Stevens

et al. 2024

Sci Data

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We present a spatial testbed of simulated boundary data based on a set of very high-resolution census-based areal units surrounding Guadalajara, Mexico. From these input areal units, we simulated 10 levels of spatial resolutions, ranging from levels with 5,515–52,388 units and 100 simulated zonal configurations for each level – totalling 1,000 simulated sets of areal units. These data facilitate interrogating various realizations of the data and the effects of the spatial coarseness and zonal configurations, the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP), on applications such as model training, model prediction, disaggregation, and aggregation processes. Further, these data can facilitate the production of spatially explicit, non-parametric estimates of confidence intervals via bootstrapping. We provide a pre-processed version of these 1,000 simulated sets of areal units, meta- and summary data to assist in their use, and a code notebook with the means to alter and/or reproduce these data.

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Data needs for better surveillance and response to infectious disease threats

Cori¹,

Lassmann²,

Nouvellet³

2023

Epidemics

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Small area population denominators for improved disease surveillance and response

Cited by 5 publications

References 48 publications

Mapping the distribution of zero-dose children to assess the performance of vaccine delivery strategies and their relationships with measles incidence in Nigeria

Mapping the distribution of zero-dose children to assess the performance of vaccine delivery strategies and their relationships with measles incidence in Nigeria

A simulated ‘sandbox’ for exploring the modifiable areal unit problem in aggregation and disaggregation

Data needs for better surveillance and response to infectious disease threats

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