Background & Objective: Social determinants of evolving covid--19 pandemic have not been well studied. To determine trends in transition of this epidemic in India we performed a study in states at various levels of human development index (HDI).
Methods:We used publicly available data sources to track progress of covid--19 epidemic in India in different states and territories where it was reported in significant numbers. The states (n=20) were classified into tertiles of HDI and weekly trends in cases and deaths plotted from 15 March to 2 May 2020. To assess association of HDI with state--level covid--19 burden we performed Pearson's correlation. Logarithmic trends were evaluated for calculation of projections. A microlevel study was performed in select urban agglomerations for identification of socioeconomic status (SES)
differentials.Results: There is wide regional variation in covid--19 cases and deaths in India from mid--March to early--May 2020. High absolute numbers have been reported from states of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Tamilnadu. Growth rate in cases and deaths is slow in high HDI states while it has increased rapidly in middle and lower HDI states. In mid--March 2020 there was a strong positive correlation of state--level HDI with weekly covid--19 cases (r= 0.37, 0.40) as well as deaths (r= 0.31, 0.42). This declined by early--May for cases (r= 0.04, 0.06) as well as deaths (r= --0.005, 0.001) with significant negative logarithmic trend (cases R squared= 0.92; deaths R squared= 0.84). These trends indicate increasing cases and deaths in low HDI states. Projection reveals that this . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)