Slower snowmelt in a warmer world

Musselman, K. N.; Clark, Martyn P.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Rasmussen, Roy

doi:10.1038/nclimate3225

Cited by 430 publications

(440 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…The results confirm previous findings in the US Pacific Northwest that the current observing network design may be insufficient in a warmer world (Gleason et al, 2017;Sproles et al, 2017). Warmer temperatures and earlier melt timing (Stewart et al, 2004) also influence the rate of meltwater production (Musselman et al, 2017), a critical determinant of streamflow (Barnhart et al, 2016), forest carbon uptake (Winchell et al, 2016), and flood hazard (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 2007). Despite a strong negative relationship between temperature and elevation, we show a positive relationship between elevation and seasonal snowmelt rates.…”

Section: Snowmelt Response To Simulated Warmingsupporting

confidence: 79%

“…The 15 mm day −1 threshold was selected as a compromise between the 12.5 mm day −1 threshold above which positive streamflow anomalies were reported by Barnhart et al (2016) and a 20 mm day −1 classification of very heavy rainfall (Klein Tank et al, 2009) used by Musselman et al (2017). To examine how daily snowmelt rates respond to simulated warming, we present a quantile analysis of the 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles of daily snowmelt rates ≥ 1 mm day −1 from the warmer scenarios compared to those from the nominal case.…”

Section: Experimental Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a warmer climate, the fraction of meltwater produced at high melt rates is projected to decrease due to a contraction of the historical melt season to a period of lower available energy (Musselman et al, 2017). Because streamflow is a nonlinear response to hydrologic input, slight reductions in snowmelt rates may disproportionately reduce runoff.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Snowmelt response to simulated warming across a large elevation gradient, southern Sierra Nevada, California

2017

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Abstract. In a warmer climate, the fraction of annual meltwater produced at high melt rates in mountainous areas is projected to decline due to a contraction of the snow-cover season, causing melt to occur earlier and under lower energy conditions. How snowmelt rates, including extreme events relevant to flood risk, may respond to a range of warming over a mountain front is poorly known. We present a model sensitivity study of snowmelt response to warming across a 3600 m elevation gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada, USA. A snow model was run for three distinct years and verified against extensive ground observations. To simulate the impact of climate warming on meltwater production, measured meteorological conditions were modified by +1 to +6 • C. The total annual snow water volume exhibited linear reductions (−10 % • C −1 ) consistent with previous studies. However, the sensitivity of snowmelt rates to successive degrees of warming varied nonlinearly with elevation. Middle elevations and years with more snowfall were prone to the largest reductions in snowmelt rates, with lesser changes simulated at higher elevations. Importantly, simulated warming causes extreme daily snowmelt (99th percentiles) to increase in spatial extent and intensity, and shift from spring to winter. The results offer insight into the sensitivity of mountain snow water resources and how the rate and timing of water availability may change in a warmer climate. The identification of future climate conditions that may increase extreme melt events is needed to address the climate resilience of regional flood control systems.

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Section: Snowmelt Response To Simulated Warmingsupporting

confidence: 79%

Section: Experimental Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Snowmelt response to simulated warming across a large elevation gradient, southern Sierra Nevada, California

2017

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“…and Pomeroy et al (2015) modelled snow hydrology in mountain basins in Yukon and Alberta, Canada, respectively, and attributed the lower snow ablation rates under climate change to an earlier snowmelt season, occurring when lower solar radiation inputs are available. Using snow accumulation records in the western USA, Musselman et al (2017) reached a similar conclusion. López-Moreno et al (2012) also found a reduction in ablation rates in the Spanish Pyrenees under a scenario of warmer temperatures.…”

Section: Changes To the Hydrological Cyclesupporting

confidence: 57%

Recent changes to the hydrological cycle of an Arctic basin at the tundra–taiga transition

Krogh

Pomeroy

2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The impact of transient changes in climate and vegetation on the hydrology of small Arctic headwater basins has not been investigated before, particularly in the tundrataiga transition region. This study uses weather and land cover observations and a hydrological model suitable for cold regions to investigate historical changes in modelled hydrological processes driving the streamflow response of a small Arctic basin at the treeline. The physical processes found in this environment and explicit changes in vegetation extent and density were simulated and validated against observations of streamflow discharge, snow water equivalent and active layer thickness. Mean air temperature and all-wave irradiance have increased by 3.7 • C and 8.4 W m −2 , respectively, while precipitation has decreased 48 mm (10 %) since 1960. Two modelling scenarios were created to separate the effects of changing climate and vegetation on hydrological processes. Results show that over 1960-2016 most hydrological changes were driven by climate changes, such as decreasing snowfall, evapotranspiration, deepening active layer thickness, earlier snow cover depletion and diminishing annual sublimation and soil moisture. However, changing vegetation has a significant impact on decreasing blowing snow redistribution and sublimation, counteracting the impact of decreasing precipitation on streamflow, demonstrating the importance of including transient changes in vegetation in longterm hydrological studies. Streamflow dropped by 38 mm as a response to the 48 mm decrease in precipitation, suggesting a small degree of hydrological resiliency. These results represent the first detailed estimate of hydrological changes occurring in small Arctic basins, and can be used as a reference to inform other studies of Arctic climate change impacts.

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“…Furthermore these regions are ecologically vital zones (Schlosser, 1995;Lowe and Likens, 2005) that impact downstream water quality (Peterson et al, 2001;Alexander et al, 2007). The dynamics of headwaters are quite variable and are projected to change in the future (Adam et al, 2009;Clow, 2010;Harpold et al, 2012;Fassnacht and Hultstrand, 2015;Fassnacht et al, 2016;Musselman et al, 2017), thus it is important to better understand the functioning of these systems for future planning and management of natural resources (Bales et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Headwater regions — Physical, ecological, and social approaches to understand these areas: introduction to the special issue

2017

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Slower snowmelt in a warmer world

Cited by 430 publications

References 40 publications

Snowmelt response to simulated warming across a large elevation gradient, southern Sierra Nevada, California

Snowmelt response to simulated warming across a large elevation gradient, southern Sierra Nevada, California

Recent changes to the hydrological cycle of an Arctic basin at the tundra–taiga transition

Headwater regions — Physical, ecological, and social approaches to understand these areas: introduction to the special issue

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